Prologis (PLD)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.34-0.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
PLD — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-04
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 4, 2026, Prologis, Inc. (“Prologis” or the “Company”), issued an announcement (the “Rule 2.7 Announcement”), pursuant to Rule 2.7 of the United Kingdom City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the “Code”) disclosing the terms of a recommended offer by the Company to acquire (the “Combination”) the entire issued and to be issued share capital of SEGRO plc (“SEGRO”). In connection with the Combination, on August 4, 2026, the Company and SEGRO ent…
Why it matters: Going over this number shows strong performance in managing strategic capital. This helps revenue.
Supportive ifStrategic capital revenue is above $660M in Q3.
Worry ifStrategic capital revenue is below $660M in Q3.
Why it matters: Core FFO is a key measure of earnings. A drop below $1.60 could signal weakening performance.
Worry ifCore FFO for Q3 reported below $1.60 per share.
Less concerning ifCore FFO for Q3 reported above $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Core FFO is a key indicator of operational performance. Staying above guidance signals strength.
Supportive ifCore FFO attributable to common stockholders of at least $6.22 per share.
Worry ifCore FFO drops below $6.22 per share.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could enhance growth and market position.
Watch forThere is an announcement of a big acquisition or merger in Q3.
Also watch forThere are no announcements about M&A activity in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $959 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting the EPS target shows Prologis is managing its earnings well. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifPrologis reports EPS between $3.80 and $4.05 for 2026.
Worry ifEPS is below $3.80. This shows weaker earnings management.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising revenue guidance shows growth. This helps future revenue stability.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance is $660M-$680M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $660M.
Why it matters: Same-store NOI growth is a key indicator of operational health. Changes can signal shifts in market conditions.
Watch forManagement raises same-store NOI growth guidance to more than 7% for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts same-store NOI growth guidance to less than 6.25%.
Why it matters: Net earnings show how profitable a company is. Falling below $2.18 may mean financial trouble.
Worry ifNet earnings to common stockholders are below $2.18 per share.
Less concerning ifNet earnings to common stockholders are above $2.18 per share.
Why it matters: More debt could affect Prologis' financial health and how it uses its money.
Worry ifDebt issuance increases beyond $36.44B in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDebt levels stabilize or decrease below $36.44B.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating guidance shows strong earnings. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifNet earnings attributable to common stockholders of at least $4.40 per share.
Worry ifNet earnings fall below $4.40 per share.
Why it matters: This purchase could improve Prologis' market position. Delays or failures may hurt investor trust.
Watch forCompletion of the acquisition of SEGRO plc by mid-2027.
Also watch forThere are big delays or cancellations of the SEGRO purchase.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good property development and management. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifDevelopment stabilizations will be $2.5B or more in 2026.
Worry ifDevelopment stabilizations will be less than $2.5B in 2026.
Why it matters: Details on new debt will show how Prologis allocates capital. This affects financial health.
Watch forManagement says they issued new debt with good terms.
Also watch forManagement reports problems with issuing new debt or bad terms.
Why it matters: High debt levels could raise concerns about financial stability. It may also affect spending.
Worry ifTotal debt reported exceeds $36.5B.
Less concerning ifTotal debt remains below $36.44B.
Why it matters: A downward revision would show weaker earnings. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifCore FFO guidance for 2026 is revised down from the current range of $6.22 to $6.30.
Less concerning ifCore FFO guidance for 2026 is maintained or raised.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS would indicate progress toward the full-year EPS target.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at $1.13 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $1.05.
Why it matters: Progress on EPS guidance shows how well Prologis is managing growth. It affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms they are on track to meet or exceed EPS guidance for 2026.
Worry ifManagement states they are falling further behind on EPS guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong growth in property development. It helps future revenue.
Supportive ifDevelopment starts of at least $5.5 billion.
Worry ifDevelopment starts fall below $5.5 billion.