Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$155.67+8.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.33 → 11.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income near $53.5M | It keeps profit near $53.5M. | Intact | Operating income falls below $53M next year | Operating income: $69.803M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=53M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202669,803,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented insurer with a durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround or a deep-value story. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong and management’s main earnings-growth priority on track; confidence is medium.
PLMR is valued at a 2.18-times premium versus peers, which the evidence attributes to durable growth. The valuation is marked expensive, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market already assumes a strong outlook; the model confidence is low.
Over the multi-year view, adjusted net income has grown from $133.5 million in 2024 to $216.1 million in 2025, and management guides to $270 million to $280 million in 2026. Adjusted return on equity has remained above 20%, while the company has repurchased shares and introduced a quarterly dividend. Near term, miss risk is assessed as low, but past deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises warrant attention.
The thesis depends on continued delivery of the Palomar 2X earnings-growth strategy and on management avoiding a guidance cut after its recent increase, which could damage credibility. A move by the Federal Reserve to cut rates is a sector risk in the evidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from insurers such as CB, PGR, and TRV could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, PLMR’s strong results and execution support an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation leaves limited room for weaker delivery. The key test is whether growth continues without a credibility setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Palomar grows revenue fast, about 31% yearly. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 30.9% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 54.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30.9% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202654.651249 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $200M share repurchase plan | A supporting condition in Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase $200M shares over two years. | Intact | Buyback plan is not executed or is canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “New Share Repurchase Program On April 30, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program, effective May 6, 2026, which replaces the previous program, and authorizes the repurchase of up to $200 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock through May 6, 2028.” “These statements involve known and unknown risks that relate to the Company’s future events or future financial performance and the actual results could differ materially from those discussed in this presentation.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.14 → $11.22 · observed estimates
$1.46B → $3.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.04 | $3,185,545,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.14 | $1,456,918,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.30 | $1,500,593,000 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.30 | $1,500,593,000 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.30 | $1,500,593,000 | 6 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.29 | $1,472,316,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.29 | $1,472,316,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.16 | $3,203,374,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.30 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.33 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.27 | $3,127,472,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.22 | $3,127,472,667 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.