Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$136.58+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 49.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PLMR — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-04
Other Events. On July 30, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared the Company’s initial quarterly cash dividend of $0.45 per common share. The dividend will be payable on September 2, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows Palomar is growing well. It shows management believes in making money.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that adjusted net income guidance stays within the $270M-$280M range.
Worry ifManagement cuts the adjusted net income guidance to less than $270M.
Why it matters: A low combined ratio shows good underwriting and profit. This is important for keeping investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted combined ratio stays below 80% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted combined ratio is over 80% in Q3.
Why it matters: This acquisition can help growth and profit. Investors will look for signs of success and earnings.
Supportive ifGray Surety contributes at least $10 million to adjusted net income in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGray Surety does not help earnings if there are integration problems.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show management's confidence in the stock and help share price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases more than $50 million of shares within the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain below $20 million in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $366 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,614 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean challenges in keeping market momentum.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY in Q2.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 30% YoY in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong operating income is important for making money. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 stays at or above $53.5 million. This shows stability.
Less concerning ifOperating income drops below $53.5 million. This suggests there may be cost issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the company’s future. It shows how well the business is doing.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic challenges. It may affect Palomar's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median. This may mean a slowdown is coming.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median. This suggests the sector remains strong.
Why it matters: A high combined ratio means worse underwriting performance. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifThe combined ratio for Q2 is over 80%. This shows underwriting problems.
Less concerning ifThe combined ratio for Q2 is below 76%. This shows strong underwriting performance.
Why it matters: The buyback plan can boost earnings per share and signal management's confidence in the stock. This can influence investor sentiment positively.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases over $50 million worth of shares within the first six months of the plan.
Worry ifLess than $20 million in shares repurchased in the same timeframe.
Why it matters: Growth in premiums shows strong market demand and good execution of the growth plan.
Supportive ifGross written premiums increase year over year by more than 25%.
Worry ifGross written premiums grow less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: The payment shows a commitment to give money back to shareholders. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.45 per share.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the dividend payment.