Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$171.70-2.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.29 → 2.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted free cash flow >= $4.2 billion | Free cash flow guidance is raised to $4.3 billion, reflecting better efficiency. | Intact | Adjusted free cash flow falls below $3 billion next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.8 - $5.0 billion.” “• And we continue to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth software business, with a multi-year view that depends on strong execution. The thesis remains intact, but the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence describes PLTR as expensive, with a valuation premium of about 20% versus peers. The expectations gap looks stretched: the market appears to be allowing for further growth, while the evidence also flags weak execution quality and low confidence in the valuation model.
Near-term fundamentals are strong: recent revenue growth is high, and management has repeatedly raised revenue and adjusted free cash flow guidance. Execution on its priorities is on track, though risk is elevated and the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth in U.S. commercial revenue and overall revenue, alongside delivery on higher cash-flow expectations. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business has strong growth momentum, but the stretched valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution. The long-term thesis is intact, with elevated risk and medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stable leadership without major insider selling | A supporting condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider stock sales. | Intact | CTO or key executives sell >$20 million stock within 6 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows >= 67% YoY | A primary condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= 67% YoY growth. | Intact | Total revenue growth falls below 40% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For full year 2026: • We are raising our revenue guidance to between $8.530 - $8.534 billion.” “• And we continue to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.” Revenue was $2.313 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
U.S. commercial revenue grows >= 100% YoY | A primary condition in Palantir Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= 100% YoY growth. | Improving | U.S. commercial revenue growth falls below 50% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.559 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 143%.” “For full year 2026: • We are raising our revenue guidance to between $8.530 - $8.534 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.09 → $2.48 · observed estimates
$11.22B → $13.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.09 | $11,223,982,140 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.09 | $11,223,982,140 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.08 | $11,236,682,028 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.08 | $11,236,682,028 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.09 | $11,226,675,600 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.08 | $11,236,683,296 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.08 | $11,236,683,296 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.08 | $11,236,683,296 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.08 | $11,236,683,296 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.09 | $11,226,675,600 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.08 | $11,236,695,111 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.09 | $11,226,675,600 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.14 | $11,545,496,204 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.14 | $11,545,496,204 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.30 | $12,049,123,740 | 29 / 31 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.31 | $12,165,761,750 | 29 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.26 | $12,147,263,527 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.28 | $12,199,153,227 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.28 | $12,199,153,227 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.28 | $12,199,153,227 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.28 | $12,199,153,227 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.28 | $12,199,153,227 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.28 | $12,222,216,484 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.28 | $12,222,216,484 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.28 | $12,222,216,484 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.28 | $12,222,216,484 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.28 | $12,222,214,912 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.29 | $12,260,352,843 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.29 | $12,260,352,843 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.29 | $12,260,353,015 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.29 | $12,260,354,588 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.29 | $12,260,354,588 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.29 | $12,246,128,279 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.29 | $12,251,468,684 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.29 | $12,251,434,201 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.29 | $12,251,434,201 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.29 | $12,251,434,201 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,435 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,435 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,435 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,435 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.29 | $12,265,009,425 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.29 | $12,314,082,164 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.29 | $12,314,080,591 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.29 | $12,314,080,591 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.29 | $12,326,597,419 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.29 | $12,326,597,419 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.30 | $12,326,597,419 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.30 | $12,326,597,419 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.30 | $12,326,597,419 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.30 | $12,326,598,991 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.30 | $12,320,423,137 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.30 | $12,320,423,137 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.31 | $12,349,440,379 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.31 | $12,349,440,379 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.31 | $12,349,440,379 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.32 | $12,349,438,817 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.32 | $12,349,438,817 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.33 | $12,386,407,280 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.33 | $12,386,407,280 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.33 | $12,386,407,280 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.33 | $12,386,407,677 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.39 | $12,646,840,309 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.48 | $13,017,750,432 | 20 / 23 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 8 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.