Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$174.33-4.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Palantir grows revenue fast, with 85% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026. U.S. commercial revenue rose 133% to $595 million, showing strong demand. Free cash flow guidance is raised to $4.3 billion, reflecting better efficiency. Partnerships with Nvidia and new deals support future growth.
The stock is expensive with a PE of 141, much higher than peers at 38. Leadership concerns arise after the CTO sold $24 million in stock. The recent sharp selloff signals risk, and profit margins or cash flow could weaken.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $105 and 42% below the Street median of $180. Analysts expect 67% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our view is more cautious on valuation and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Adjusted free cash flow falls below $3 billion next year
Breaks if: CTO or key executives sell >$20 million stock within 6 months
Total revenue growth falls below 40% YoY next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology and data analytics. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong revenue growth and management's consistent execution on key priorities.
The market currently prices PLTR at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a stretched expectation for future performance. There is a fragility in this pricing due to the elevated valuation and recent declines in execution quality.
Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong growth, particularly in U.S. commercial revenue and adjusted free cash flow. However, there is a low probability of missing expectations, though industry peers have faced challenges recently.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and cash flow guidance, as well as external factors like potential interest rate cuts by the Fed. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle could influence PLTR's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth. Palantir raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $8.150-$8.158 billion. U.S. commercial demand is expected to grow 134% year-over-year. The sovereign AI market is projected to grow significantly by 2030.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: U.S. commercial revenue growth falls below 50% YoY next year
Focus on growing U.S. commercial revenue with high year-over-year growth and raised guidance.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. U.S. commercial revenue grew from $214 million in 2024-Q4 to $764 million in 2026-Q2, a 149% year-over-year increase in the latest quarter. Management has consistently raised U.S. commercial revenue guidance, most recently to over $3.424 billion for 2026, representing at least 134% growth. The trajectory is delivering strongly on this priority.
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year and 28% quarter-over-quarter to $764 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 133% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter to $595 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% year-over-year and 28% quarter-over-quarter to $507 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 121% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter to $397 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 93% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter to $306 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million.”
“U.S. commercial revenue grew 64% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter to $214 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, PLTR's performance will depend on its execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.