Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$174.33-4.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 81.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for Palantir's long-term strategy. A miss may indicate market challenges.
Worry ifRevenue growth is less than 82% compared to last year for 2026.
Less concerning ifOverall revenue growth meets or exceeds 82% year-over-year for 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted free cash flow is crucial for funding growth. Changes can impact future investments.
Watch forAdjusted free cash flow guidance raised to between $4.5 billion and $4.7 billion.
Also watch forAdjusted free cash flow guidance drops below $4.0 billion.
Why it matters: U.S. commercial revenue growth is key to Palantir's overall performance. Strong growth signals continued demand.
Supportive ifU.S. commercial revenue grows year over year by at least 134%.
Worry ifU.S. commercial revenue growth falls below 120% year over year.
Why it matters: TCV growth reflects future revenue potential. It shows how well Palantir is securing contracts.
Supportive ifTotal contract value grows year over year by at least 49%.
Worry ifTotal contract value growth is less than 30% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$211 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,822 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A decline below 134% would indicate weakening demand in a key growth area.
Worry ifU.S. commercial revenue growth below 134% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifU.S. commercial revenue growth at or above 134% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue growth and operational performance. It is a key event for assessing company health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows that revenue is growing. It also shows positive income from operations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in revenue. It also shows negative income from operations.
Why it matters: A drop below 82% growth would signal a slowdown in momentum for Palantir.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth below 82% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth at or above 82% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The Rule of 40 score combines growth and profitability. It shows overall business health.
Watch forRule of 40 score remains above 150%.
Also watch forRule of 40 score drops below 140%.
Why it matters: Lower TCV growth could signal challenges in securing new contracts.
Worry ifTotal contract value grew less than 49% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifTotal contract value growth at or above 49% year-over-year.