Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$171.70-2.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 81.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PLTR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: U.S. commercial sales rose 149% in Q2. Management raised its full-year growth target to at least 134%.
Supportive if2026 U.S. commercial revenue tops $3.424 billion, the stated floor for the year.
Worry if2026 U.S. commercial revenue is below $3.424 billion, or growth falls short of 134%.
Why it matters: Palantir guided to $2.160–$2.164 billion for Q3. A higher result would extend its fast growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $2.164 billion, the top of the company’s stated range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $2.160 billion, the bottom of the company’s stated range.
Why it matters: Cash flow gives a clear test of management’s raised target. A result below the range would miss that mark.
Watch forFull-year adjusted free cash flow is at least $4.5 billion, the low end of guidance.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted free cash flow is below $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Palantir raised its 2026 revenue range twice in the first half. The next report can show whether growth stays on track.
Supportive if2026 revenue is above $8.158 billion, the top of the stated range.
Worry if2026 revenue is below $8.150 billion, the bottom of the stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,475 loss on $10,000 · 44.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.