Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pennant Group, Inc. (The) (PNTG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.00-9.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.58 → 1.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PNTG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS between $1.26 and $1.36 | Profit per share targets $1.26-$1.36, showing solid earnings. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.26 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PNTG is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a sector tailwind, rather than a deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and earnings quality remains fragile.
The evidence describes the valuation as expensive, with PNTG trading at a substantial premium to peers and a stretched priced-in signal. The estimated expectations gap is positive but modest, and confidence in that estimate is low, so the valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong: first-half revenue and diluted EPS increased year over year, and management raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut; the latest reported earnings were in line after two earlier beats, while miss risk is rated quiet but reflects the company’s smaller size and a deep past miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management continuing to deliver against its 2026 revenue, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA priorities. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
For a 1- to 3-year view, PNTG combines strong operating momentum with a supportive sector backdrop, but fragile earnings quality and an expensive valuation make consistent delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Pennant Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $94.2 million. |
| Intact |
| EBITDA falls below $94.2 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue reaches $1.133B-$1.172B | A primary condition in Pennant Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.133 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $1.133 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $302.251M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.133 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026302,251,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.60 → $1.59 · observed estimates
$1.26B → $1.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.60 | $1,256,312,943 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.60 | $1,256,312,943 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.60 | $1,256,312,943 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.60 | $1,256,312,943 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.60 | $1,256,312,943 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.60 | $1,256,316,710 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.61 | $1,265,196,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.61 | $1,265,196,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $1,265,196,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.62 | $1,275,953,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.62 | $1,275,953,860 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.60 | $1,258,864,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.59 | $1,273,579,500 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.58 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.59 | $1,275,925,286 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.