Pennant Group, Inc. (The) (PNTG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.00-1.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PNTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PNTG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Home health admissions growth is vital for future revenue. A slowdown could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifHome health admissions growth is reported below 62.7% year over year.
Less concerning ifHome health admissions growth meets or exceeds 62.7% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. A low number may mean problems.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is $23 million or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $23 million.
Why it matters: Good integration helps gain growth from acquisitions. Delays can hurt performance.
Supportive ifThe integration of the two biggest operations is done by the middle of Q4.
Worry ifIntegration of the two largest waves of operations is delayed beyond the middle of Q4.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS is crucial for meeting annual targets. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS is $0.34 or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS falls below $0.34.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,837 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target is crucial for achieving the annual EPS goal of $1.26-$1.36.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported at or above $0.30.
Worry ifQ2 EPS reported below $0.30.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a stronger health care sector. This may benefit Pennant Group.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth is speeding up toward 10% or more.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down and is below 10%.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA level matters for the yearly target of $94.2M-$100.0M.
Supportive ifQ2 EBITDA reported at or above $25 million.
Worry ifQ2 EBITDA was below $25 million.
Why it matters: Lower adjusted EBITDA may show problems. This can hurt cash flow.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $94.4 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA at or above $94.4 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 35% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 30% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows good cost control and rising revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for the year falls within the $1.34-$1.41 range.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.30 for the year.
Why it matters: Good merging would help revenue growth and make operations run better.
Supportive ifFinish merging all five waves of operations by mid-Q4 2026.
Worry ifMerging of operations is delayed past Q4 2026.