Pennant Group, Inc. (The) (PNTG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.04+6.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PNTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PNTG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The sector data says health care growth is slowing. Pennant's next results can show whether its service growth keeps pace.
Watch forPennant reports year-over-year home health and hospice revenue growth above its Q2 rate of 43.2%.
Also watch forPennant reports year-over-year home health and hospice revenue growth below its Q2 rate of 43.2%.
Why it matters: Pennant raised its 2026 targets after strong first-half results. Meeting them would back that growth story.
Supportive ifIn the November 4 results, 2026 revenue guidance stays at $1,171.1M-$1,190.1M. Adjusted EPS stays at $1.34-$1.41, and adjusted EBITDA at $94.4M-$98.0M.
Worry ifPennant cuts any of those 2026 guidance ranges below its August 5 range.
Why it matters: Finishing the transition on time would support management's claim that integration is ahead of plan. Delays could weigh on results.
Supportive ifBy mid-Q4, Pennant reports that both large waves are fully transitioned, beyond the two of five waves completed in Q1.
Worry ifAfter mid-Q4, Pennant says a large wave may still be untransitioned, or integration costs may be above plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $364 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,837 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.