Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Outdoor Holding Co. (POWW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.40+2.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.06 → 0.06 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for POWW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $15 million share repurchase program | aims to stabilize with a $15 million share repurchase program. | Intact | Repurchase program is not executed or is materially delayed by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with a marketplace expansion story, rather than a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: reported marketplace growth and lower expenses are constructive, but earnings remain loss-making and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence rates valuation as expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.94. Valuation has eased recently, but the premium appears to assume that marketplace growth and improved monetization can persist; the evidence does not show that the broader expensive, weak, and turbulent risk combination is fully concentrated in the current setup.
Near-term marketplace metrics are growing: the latest results showed 22.1% year-over-year revenue growth and 18.1% GMV growth, while operating expenses fell 45.3% year over year. Some recent demand included Virginia-related purchasing activity that management said might not repeat, and part of the cost decline came from resolved legal matters. Near-term earnings risk is elevated after a recent guidance miss and erratic surprises, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on marketplace growth continuing without unusual demand, and on transaction monetization improving beyond the early contribution from FFL transfers; universal payments has no reported implementation result yet. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
For a 1-3 year view, POWW has evidence of growth and cost control, but the loss-making record, elevated near-term risk, execution volatility, and expensive peer valuation leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Outdoor Holding Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.01 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains below $0.01 per share next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $0.02 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.01 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20260.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 4% annually | A primary condition in Outdoor Holding Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.6% next year | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.01 → $0.06 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.01 | $54,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.06 | $57,524,380 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.