Outdoor Holding Co. (POWW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.17+1.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POWW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 52.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name recently missed its own guidance and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
POWW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-06-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 22, 2026, Outdoor Holding Company (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the fiscal quarterly period and annual period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company in this connection is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Why it matters: Changes in the accounting firm can affect financial reporting and investor trust. It is a key governance issue.
Watch forThe new accounting firm gives a clean audit opinion on the next report.
Also watch forThe new firm raises concerns or issues a qualified opinion on the financials.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is making more money and controlling costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is likely to be more than $25 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is likely to be less than $20 million in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Growth in marketplace activity shows the company is improving. It shows strong demand and better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 20% compared to last year. This shows strong marketplace activity.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year. This suggests less marketplace activity.
Why it matters: Changes in the accounting firm may affect future financial report trust.
Watch forGood feedback on financial report quality is expected in the next earnings call.
Also watch forConcerns about financial report quality will be raised in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Good AI projects can improve user experience and marketplace efficiency. This can boost growth and profits.
Watch forAI initiatives lead to a 10% increase in conversion rates by Q3.
Also watch forAI projects do not improve conversion rates or user experience by Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on share buybacks shows management's trust in the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifShare repurchases of at least $5 million are announced for the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady net income shows the company is doing well for the long term.
Supportive ifNet income reported as positive in the next earnings release.
Worry ifNet income reported as negative in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is maturing. If growth re-accelerates, it could help Outdoor Holding Co.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5%.
Why it matters: Progress on this program shows the company wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company will announce big share buybacks by the next earnings date.
Worry ifNo updates or share repurchases reported by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Over 20% revenue growth shows strong market activity and gains in market share.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth above 20% year over year, continuing the trend from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More revenue from FFL transfers shows success in making money from new services.
Supportive ifFFL transfer revenue contributes more than 39 basis points to the take rate.
Worry ifFFL transfer revenue contribution goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Low operating expenses show good cost control and more money made.
Supportive ifOperating costs were less than $9 million this quarter.
Worry ifOperating costs were more than $10 million this quarter.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,212 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.