Outdoor Holding Co. (POWW)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.31-3.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POWW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 104.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 99.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name recently missed its own guidance and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers
POWW — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Shareholders
Dated 2026-10-02
Material Modification to Rights of Shareholders. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) of Outdoor Holding Company (the “Company”) held on September 28, 2026, the stockholders of the Company approved the redomestication of the Company from the State of Delaware to the State of Texas by conversion (the “Texas Redomestication”) pursuant to a plan of conversion (the “Plan of Conversion”), as described in the Company’s definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A for…
Why it matters: Virginia-related buying lifted the last quarter, and management said it may not repeat. Growth outside Virginia was still strong.
Watch forIn the November 16 results, GMV grows year over year. Growth outside Virginia is near or above the prior quarter's $23 million increase.
Also watch forIn the November 16 results, GMV falls year over year. Or, growth outside Virginia is below the prior quarter's $23 million increase.
Why it matters: FFL transfers added 39 basis points, but legacy take rate fell to 6.08%. Universal payments are also a stated goal.
Watch forA results release shows total take rate above 6.47%, with FFL transfers or universal payments adding to the gain.
Also watch forTotal take rate falls below 6.47%, or the release reports no progress on universal payments.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,212 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.