Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Permian Resources (PR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$21.34-4.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.23 → 2.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash capex budget between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026 | A supporting condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Capex between $1.75B and $1.95B in FY26. | Intact | Capex exceeds $1.95B or falls below $1.75B in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $314.617M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $1.75B and $1.95B in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026314,617,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PR is an energy-sector business with a multi-year view that depends on execution and the sector backdrop. Recent financial performance is strong and earnings quality is robust, while management execution is mixed on production targets and on track on spending and dividends.
The evidence describes PR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly undemanding. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility because the identified concern is a turbulent sector regime rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026, and second-quarter oil production close to the raised 2026 target. Spending remains within the stated budget and the quarterly dividend has been maintained at its increased level. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though prior deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on PR sustaining production growth while keeping capital spending disciplined. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the energy-sector backdrop. Weaker results or lower guidance from those bellwethers could remove that support.
The 1-3 year view remains intact, with strong execution evidence offset by moderate risk and dependence on sector conditions. The next guidance update and continued delivery on production and spending are central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase quarterly base dividend to $0.16 per share | Dividend per share increased to $0.16, showing commitment to shareholders. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.16 in 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend >= $0.16 per share in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 6, 20250.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Shareholder Returns Permian Resources announced today that its Board of Directors declared the Company’s fourth quarter 2026 base dividend of $0.16 per share of Class A common stock or $0.64 per share on an annualized basis.” “(For a detailed table summarizing Permian Resources’ 2026 operational and financial guidance, please see the Appendix of this press release.) Shareholder Returns Permian Resources announced today that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared the Company’s first quarter 2026 base dividend of $0.16 per share of Class A common stock, a 7% increase from $0.15 per share previously.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Increase oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d to 192.5 MBbls/d in 2026 | Permian Resources aims to grow oil production by 3.5 MBbls/d in 2026. | Intact | Oil production growth falls below 2 MBbls/d increase in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near $7.15-$8.15 per unit in 2026 | A supporting condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin >= $7.15 per unit in FY26. | Intact | Gross margin falls below $7.15 per unit in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue between $1.75B and $1.95B in 2026 | A primary condition in Permian Resources's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $1.75B in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.75B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.958B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $1.75B in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20261,957,710,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.02 → $2.47 · observed estimates
$6.49B → $7.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.02 | $6,489,739,462 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.07 | $6,502,319,150 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.07 | $6,502,319,150 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.07 | $6,502,319,150 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.02 | $6,489,739,462 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.08 | $6,494,466,930 | 18 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.02 | $6,485,813,351 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.11 | $6,526,630,240 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.15 | $6,563,425,380 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.02 | $6,488,202,240 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.12 | $6,637,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.12 | $6,637,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.13 | $6,658,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.13 | $6,658,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.13 | $6,658,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.13 | $6,658,530,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.13 | $6,667,474,838 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.13 | $6,667,474,838 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.13 | $6,667,474,838 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.17 | $6,712,668,394 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.14 | $6,753,249,005 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.14 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.14 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.14 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.18 | $6,753,249,005 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.18 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.19 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.19 | $6,776,091,110 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.19 | $6,781,929,505 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.20 | $6,805,179,727 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.20 | $6,805,179,727 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.23 | $6,808,754,171 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.26 | $6,864,235,283 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.26 | $6,864,235,283 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.26 | $6,864,235,283 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.28 | $6,866,924,425 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.30 | $6,888,539,685 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.33 | $6,939,736,740 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.38 | $6,984,144,960 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.38 | $6,984,144,960 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.38 | $6,984,144,960 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.38 | $6,984,144,960 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.40 | $7,036,355,486 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.42 | $7,053,553,697 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.42 | $7,053,553,697 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.42 | $7,053,553,697 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.42 | $7,079,516,855 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.42 | $7,079,516,855 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.42 | $7,079,516,855 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.42 | $7,079,516,855 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,845 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,845 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,845 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,844 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,844 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.41 | $7,078,421,844 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.47 | $7,137,020,213 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.47 | $7,137,020,213 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.47 | $7,137,020,213 | 14 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.