Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.86-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.55 → 5.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments at $0.14 per share | The company pays a steady dividend of $0.14 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.14 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.14 per quarter. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PRG is a growth-oriented financial business with a multi-year thesis tied to its Grow, Enhance, and Expand strategy. The thesis is intact, though company momentum weakened after fresh earnings and management execution has been volatile.
The valuation model shows PRG trading at a premium to peers, with a durable premium as the main driver and an expectations gap that is somewhat negative. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not establish that the premium will persist.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management reported $326.6 million of debt reduction since the Purchasing Power acquisition, with net leverage at 1.5x in the third quarter. Revenue comparisons are complicated by the acquisition, and the supplied results do not establish delivery against the multi-year growth targets; the next guidance update and continued deleveraging are key near-term tests.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength at sector bellwethers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum. The thesis also depends on management advancing growth while reducing debt, and on how interest-rate changes affect financial companies.
Over the next one to three years, PRG’s thesis has support from strong recent performance and reported debt reduction, but growth delivery and guidance remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins improve as operating income rose from $56M to $65M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $56M in any quarter |
Operating income: $65.981M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $65M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202665,981,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 20% annually | A primary condition in PROG Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Revenue: $725.779M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026725,779,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.33 → $5.54 · observed estimates
$3.28B → $3.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.33 | $3,275,556,120 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.42 | $3,276,393,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,550 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,550 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.64 | $3,304,651,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.64 | $3,308,201,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.55 | $3,288,959,857 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.55 | $3,288,966,543 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.55 | $3,288,789,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.55 | $3,294,608,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.55 | $3,294,537,029 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.58 | $3,259,229,507 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.54 | $3,243,956,000 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.