PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$38.86-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-28
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On October 28, 2026, PROG Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced herein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Why it matters: Four's GMV rose 110.6% in Q2, and its profit also grew. Growth above 100% would show this fast-growing business is still gaining scale.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows Four GMV growth above 100% year over year and adjusted EBITDA growth above 100%.
Worry ifFour GMV growth falls below 50% year over year, or adjusted EBITDA declines year over year.
Why it matters: Progressive Leasing's write-offs were 8.4% of lease revenue in Q2. A lower rate would ease concern about customer payment risk.
Worry ifProgressive Leasing write-offs top 8% of lease revenue in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifWrite-offs return to 8% or less and remain within the stated 6% to 8% target range.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash dividend was above $0.14 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly cash dividend remains at or below $0.14 per share.
Why it matters: This growth shows that the acquired business is working well.
Supportive ifPurchasing Power's revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Worry ifPurchasing Power's revenue growth is below 10% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,798 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy can show new plans for money and management.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the quarterly dividend per share.
Also watch forThere is a notice about cutting or ending the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong growth. It shows the company can adapt to market changes.
Supportive ifIn Q3, total revenues from ongoing operations were $715 million or more.
Worry ifIn Q3, total revenues from ongoing operations were less than $715 million.
Why it matters: Stable GMV growth shows demand is recovering and operations are working well.
Supportive ifProgressive Leasing's GMV growth was 3.4% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifProgressive Leasing's GMV growth was less than 3.4% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash dividend stays at $0.14 per share. This confirms dividend stability.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is cut or missed. This shows possible financial issues.
Why it matters: Q2 results beat the top end of the outlook, and management raised its 2026 forecast. Another Q3 beat would support that growth is holding.
Supportive ifOn October 28, Q3 adjusted EBITDA tops $89 million or non-GAAP EPS tops $1.20.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $79 million or non-GAAP EPS is below $1.00.
Why it matters: Debt paydown brought net leverage to 1.7x in Q2. Further paydown would show the company is moving toward the low end of its 1.5x to 2.0x target range.
Supportive ifA company update reports net leverage below 1.5x, with debt lower than the prior quarter.
Worry ifNet leverage rises above 2.0x or debt increases from the prior quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level mean ongoing profits and strong operations.
Supportive ifNet earnings from continuing operations exceed $36,000 in Q3.
Worry ifNet earnings from continuing operations fall below $36,000 in Q3.
Why it matters: This would signal a shift in the company's growth momentum and sector performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 13%. This shows weaker performance than the sector median.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 13%, showing continued strength.