Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Prairie Operating Co. (PROP)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.41+2.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PROP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $240M and $260M in 2026 | It targets adjusted EBITDA of $240M to $260M this year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $240M in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PROP is a high-risk energy business with a recovery and growth element, rather than a proven durable compounder, since it remains loss-making. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, supported by recent financial performance, while management execution is mixed and earnings remain erratic.
The valuation evidence describes PROP as cheap versus peers, with a small peer premium also reported, so the relative picture is not fully consistent. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment calls the setup justified, with fragility tied to a turbulent sector rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Near term, revenue rose from $83.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $98.9 million in the second, while production eased from about 23,182 to 21,866 Boe/d. Management has made progress on preferred-stock refinancing and cost control, but production growth and capital-spending guidance remain mixed; the next-quarter earnings-miss risk is elevated, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether PROP sustains operational efficiency and follows through on capital discipline without further weakening production or guidance. Sector support depends in part on whether bellwethers COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and raise guidance, or instead weaken and remove the current tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PROP’s long-term thesis has support from strong recent performance and improving capital structure, but loss-making results, high risk, and uneven execution leave it vulnerable to earnings and sector setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Prairie aims to keep capital spending between $200M and $220M in 2026. |
| Broken |
| Capital spending exceeds $220M or falls below $200M in 2026 |
Capital expenditures: $109.825M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $200M-$220M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026109,825,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase average daily production to 25,500-27,500 Boe/d in 2026 | The company plans to raise daily production to at least 25,500 barrels. | Intact | Average daily production falls below 25,500 Boe/d in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.80 → $0.48 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.80 | $468,560,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.80 | $468,560,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.88 | $500,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.73 | $461,975,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.59 | $416,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.62 | $429,866,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.64 | $444,257,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $425,510,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.49 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.48 | $424,176,667 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.