Prairie Operating Co. (PROP)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.45-3.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PROP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 103.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PROP — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Third Amendment to Amended & Restated Credit Agreement On August 14, 2026, Prairie Operating Co. (the “Company”) entered into a Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), effective as of June 30, 2026, with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other financial institutions party thereto, which amends the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 26, 2025 (as amended by that certain First Ame…
Why it matters: Confirming the adjusted EBITDA target shows Prairie can manage costs and grow profits.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm adjusted EBITDA guidance of $240M-$260M for 2026 in the next call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the adjusted EBITDA guidance to less than $240M.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows Prairie's ability to generate cash flow and manage costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported within the $180M-$190M range.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $180M.
Why it matters: This target reflects Prairie's financial health. Achieving it signals strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $240 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $240 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable production is key to showing Prairie can maintain growth despite recent fluctuations.
Supportive ifQ3 average daily production was over 22,500 Boe/d.
Worry ifQ3 average daily production was under 22,500 Boe/d.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$376 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $968 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,187 loss on $10,000 · 81.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Production levels are key for revenue and cash flow. A drop below this level may signal operational issues.
Worry ifAverage daily production has been below 21,000 Boe/d for two months.
Less concerning ifAverage daily production has stayed above 21,000 Boe/d for two months.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows careful spending. It affects future growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms CAPEX guidance remains at $200M-$220M during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts CAPEX guidance from $200M. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: Fixing this issue is key for keeping the listing and investor trust.
Worry ifNasdaq says Prairie meets the minimum bid price rule again.
Less concerning ifNasdaq sends a delisting notice for ongoing non-compliance.
Why it matters: Progress on this refinancing would make the capital structure easier. It would also ease dilution concerns.
Supportive ifLook for news about more refinancing or a lower balance in Series F Preferred Stock.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about Series F Preferred Stock refinancing.
Why it matters: Achieving this EBITDA range is crucial for Prairie's financial health and growth outlook.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was between $240M and $260M in quarterly results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $240M or above $260M.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending plans can impact future growth and financial health.
Watch forSpending plans are confirmed at $185M-$195M.
Also watch forSpending plans are cut to below $185M.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is important for funding operations and spending.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations stays above $52 million for two quarters.
Worry ifNet cash from operations falls below $40 million.
Why it matters: The result affects Prairie's ability to stay public and get funding.
Worry ifPrairie's stock price stays above $1.00 for 10 business days.
Less concerning ifPrairie fails to regain compliance and faces delisting.
Why it matters: Changes in production guidance can show how well a company is running.
Watch forManagement raises daily production guidance to more than 25,000 Boe/d.
Also watch forManagement lowers daily production guidance to less than 23,000 Boe/d.