Prairie Operating Co. (PROP)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.41+2.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PROP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 28 industry peers
PROP — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Third Amendment to Amended & Restated Credit Agreement On August 14, 2026, Prairie Operating Co. (the “Company”) entered into a Third Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), effective as of June 30, 2026, with Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the other financial institutions party thereto, which amends the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 26, 2025 (as amended by that certain First Ame…
Why it matters: The credit deal sets a minimum for monthly output, measured over three months from September 30. Missing it could put pressure on cash and debt terms.
Worry ifThe three-month average stays above the credit amendment’s minimum output level. No covenant breach is reported.
Less concerning ifThe rolling three-month average falls below the agreed minimum. Or Prairie reports an output covenant breach.
Why it matters: Q2 output fell to 21,866 Boe/d from 23,182 in Q1. The new full-year range is lower than the earlier plan.
Watch forFull-year 2026 average output lands at or above 23,000 Boe/d and within the revised 23,000–25,000 range.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 average output falls below 23,000 Boe/d, or Prairie cuts the range again.
Why it matters: Prairie cut its 2026 EBITDA range from $240M–$260M to $180M–$190M. The next report will show progress toward the lower goal.
Watch forFull-year adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $180 million. Q3 results keep the company on pace.
Also watch forPrairie cuts the $180M–$190M range, or full-year adjusted EBITDA lands below $180 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$361 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $990 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,648 loss on $10,000 · 86.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.