Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.20+0.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.27 → 1.42 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PROV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share and execute 5% stock buyback | Provident Financial Holdings plans to repurchase up to 5% of its stock and maintains a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or failure to execute announced buyback | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap bank with a multi-year view tied to net interest margin, credit quality, and sector conditions. The thesis state is watch: recent performance has been below its industry cohort, and the latest earnings miss weakened company momentum.
The evidence labels valuation as expensive, with a stretched priced-in tag, despite also identifying the shares as cheap versus peers. That mixed picture suggests the expectations gap matters, but the snapshot does not specify what investors are assuming in detail; fragility is rated low.
Near term, the earnings miss and a 35% estimated miss probability warrant attention, especially given the company’s smaller size and recent misses. In 2026-Q3, net interest margin rose and non-performing assets fell, but net income declined sequentially; management’s credit-quality and reserve focus has supporting evidence, while shareholder-return delivery evidence is limited.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could weigh on financial companies, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on margin gains translating into stronger profitability while credit quality remains sound. The latest results have weakened the near-term evidence, and valuation remains a concern. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth and EPS of $1.04 for fiscal 2027. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.04 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=1.04 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Sep 2, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 7% annually | A primary condition in Provident Financial Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 7% annually | Revenue growth: 1.58% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Sep 2, 20261.582215 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.08 → $1.42 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.08 | $39,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.27 | $41,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.42 | $42,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.42 | $42,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.42 | $42,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.42 | $42,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.42 | $42,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.