Provident Financial Holdings Inc (PROV)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.70+0.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PROV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
PROV — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-24
Other Events On July 23, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Corporation”) announced that the Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share. Shareholders of the Corporation’s common stock at the close of business on August 13, 2026 will be entitled to receive the cash dividend. The cash dividend will be payable on September 3, 2026. The news release announcing the quarterly cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by refere…
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show credit or profit problems.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $1.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported above $1.5 million.
Why it matters: A drop below this threshold may indicate weakening demand for loans.
Worry ifLoans held for investment fall below $1 billion in Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifLoans held for investment remain above $1.03 billion in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets show worse credit quality. This could hurt the stock.
Worry ifThe ratio of non-performing assets to total assets is over 0.04%.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets ratio stays at or below 0.04%.
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means the company makes more money and controls costs well.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.25% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.10% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: A lower recovery could show worse credit conditions. This may raise worries about future profits.
Worry ifRecovery of credit losses is below $95,000 for Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifRecovery of credit losses reported at or above $95,000 for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Keeping the cash dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.14 per share on September 3, 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share again.
Worry ifThe Board reduces the quarterly cash dividend below $0.14 per share.
Why it matters: A drop could mean profits are getting worse and funding costs are rising.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.13%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is above 3.13%.
Why it matters: Updates on the 5% stock repurchase plan can signal confidence in the company's value. This may boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifThe company announces completion of at least 50% of the stock repurchase plan.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the stock repurchase plan are reported.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$24 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $100 loss on $10,000 · 1.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $535 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.