Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Purple Innovation Inc (PRPL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.54-9.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRPL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million in 2026 | Purple Innovation aims to maintain adjusted EBITDA between $20M and $30M in 2026. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $20 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, not a durable compounder today. The multi-year view is on watch: adjusted EBITDA has improved, but financial performance is weak, management signals are volatile, and confidence in the evidence is medium.
PRPL is expensive versus peers, and the evidence suggests expectations leave little room for disappointment. The valuation model has low confidence, while the priced-in assessment says fragility is low because valuation is the main pressure rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue remains under pressure: second-quarter revenue declined 6.5% year over year, and management lowered its 2026 revenue outlook twice. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss to a profit year over year, and direct-to-consumer revenue and showroom sales grew, but a recent earnings miss and elevated risk of another miss weigh on the setup.
A key favorable signal would be a revenue recovery and higher guidance next quarter, alongside delivery of management’s fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal. The thesis also depends on whether showroom and direct-to-consumer growth can offset wholesale softness, and whether consumer discretionary peers continue to report strong results. Further weak guidance or deteriorating sector results would add pressure; recent listing-rule notices are an additional concern.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on turning adjusted EBITDA progress and showroom growth into steadier revenue, while addressing listing-rule concerns. The current evidence is mixed but cautious, with weak results and expensive valuation keeping execution risk high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Purple Innovation Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Named successors appointed and stable leadership by end 2026. |
| Intact |
| No named COO or CFO successors appointed by end 2026 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $475 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Purple Innovation Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$475 million. | Broken | revenue falls below $465 million in FY26 | Revenue: $96.506M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$475 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202696,506,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Outlook We are maintaining our revenue guidance in the range of $420 million to $440 million, supported by an improved marketing plan, normal seasonal strength in DTC, and new product introductions, partially offset by continued pressure in wholesale.” “2026 Outlook Given the continued softness in the category, particularly in wholesale, we are lowering our revenue guidance in the range of $420 million to $440 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.10 → $-5.96 · observed estimates
$0.50B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-5.10 | $499,396,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-5.07 | $499,396,120 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.37 | $466,007,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-5.96 | $438,151,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.