Purple Innovation Inc (PRPL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.810.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 104.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRPL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On August 10, 2026, Purple Innovation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, and providing revised net revenue guidance for 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes o…
Why it matters: It is important to keep adjusted EBITDA guidance. This helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 comes in within the $20-$30 million range.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below the $20 million mark.
Why it matters: The COO left without a replacement. This is a leadership issue that needs attention.
Watch forA new COO was appointed. This shows a plan for stable leadership.
Also watch forNo new leader has been chosen. This creates ongoing uncertainty in the company.
Why it matters: Strong showroom growth helps the direct-to-consumer plan. It is key to offset wholesale drops.
Supportive ifShowroom revenue growth exceeds 16% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifShowroom revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money a company makes. Meeting the target helps management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 meets or exceeds $20 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 falls below $20 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$315 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $811 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,680 loss on $10,000 · 86.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A change in revenue guidance may show problems in e-commerce and wholesale.
Worry ifThe company revises its 2026 revenue outlook down to $465-$485 million.
Less concerning ifThe company maintains or raises its revenue guidance above $485 million.
Why it matters: Steady EBITDA guidance shows the company can control costs. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company will confirm EBITDA guidance in the next earnings report.
Worry ifThe company will lower EBITDA guidance in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: The company lowered its revenue outlook. Stable revenue is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows improvement, landing within the revised range of $465 to $485 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines further from $95.7 million in Q1.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance reflects ongoing market challenges. It shows how well the company adapts.
Worry ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance remains in the range of $420 million to $440 million.
Less concerning ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance to more than $440 million.
Why it matters: The reverse stock split can impact share price and investor perception.
Watch forCompany announces when the reverse stock split will happen.
Also watch forNo news or delay about the reverse stock split.