Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Prudential Financial (PRU)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.63+6.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.90 → 13.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $13.72 in FY26 | A primary condition in Prudential Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=13.72 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $13.0 per share in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PRU is a mature financial business with a multi-year thesis tied to execution across its businesses and progress at PGIM. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results improved, but overall financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are close to, but a little above, what the evidence supports.
Near term, execution has improved: adjusted operating income rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and PGIM’s results show progress toward management’s margin goal. Stable U.S. Businesses income and higher Group Insurance sales also support the operating picture, though recent overall performance remains weak and a guidance cut is a risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining progress in PGIM margins, U.S. Businesses, and execution across the company. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued strong earnings and guidance from sector peers could support momentum; the recent litigation filing is also a risk to monitor.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PRU has credible signs of operating progress and a valuation that is cheap versus peers, but weak relative performance and execution risks leave the thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Prudential Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=597 million USD. |
| Under Pressure |
| net income falls below 597 million USD |
Net income: $1.388B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=597 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20261,388,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PGIM adjusted operating income reaches $190M | A primary condition in Prudential Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=190 million USD. | Under Pressure | PGIM adjusted operating income falls below 156 million USD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
U.S. Businesses adjusted operating income reaches $956M | business profit rose 3% to $956M. | Under Pressure | U.S. Businesses adjusted operating income falls below 931 million USD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.55 → $13.84 · observed estimates
$60.06B → $58.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.55 | $60,056,934,280 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.56 | $60,037,945,581 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.56 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.56 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.56 | $60,084,596,221 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.60 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.60 | $60,084,619,292 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.60 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.60 | $60,084,619,292 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.60 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.60 | $60,084,619,292 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.60 | $59,960,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.60 | $60,084,619,292 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.60 | $60,084,619,292 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.64 | $59,998,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.64 | $59,998,138,560 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.69 | $60,107,276,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.64 | $60,115,019,291 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.77 | $60,491,916,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.77 | $60,491,916,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.77 | $60,491,916,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.80 | $60,491,916,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.80 | $60,491,916,180 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.84 | $60,485,404,661 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.84 | $60,485,404,661 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.84 | $60,485,404,661 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.84 | $60,485,404,661 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.88 | $60,477,071,327 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.88 | $60,500,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.88 | $60,555,559,505 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.88 | $60,555,559,505 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.88 | $60,555,559,505 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.88 | $60,555,559,505 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.88 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.88 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.88 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.90 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.90 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.90 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.90 | $60,518,003,950 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.90 | $60,518,171,714 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.91 | $60,518,171,714 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.91 | $60,518,171,714 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.91 | $60,518,171,714 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.84 | $60,518,505,047 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.80 | $60,518,505,047 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.80 | $60,518,505,047 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.68 | $60,472,616,158 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.68 | $60,472,616,158 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.68 | $60,472,616,158 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.66 | $60,618,779,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.66 | $60,618,779,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.37 | $60,386,779,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.37 | $60,386,779,722 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.30 | $60,098,783,465 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.24 | $59,799,033,465 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.15 | $59,165,149,403 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.10 | $58,891,791,918 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.06 | $58,891,791,918 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.06 | $58,891,791,918 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.06 | $58,891,791,918 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.06 | $58,891,791,918 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.92 | $58,541,581,705 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.83 | $58,292,137,261 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.84 | $58,292,142,716 | 6 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.