Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
PriceSmart (PSMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$162.56-1.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.45 → 6.62 EPS · FY ending Aug 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PSMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share growth | Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $2.91, indicating profit growth. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.50 in fiscal 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.91 in fiscal 2026. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Oct 26, 20261.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples growth business with a durable-premium profile, supported by warehouse club expansion and rising merchandise sales. The long-term thesis is improving, but the latest signal is only mildly favorable and the thesis state is watch.
PSMT is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a sizable expectations gap. The valuation evidence points to limited fragility beyond that expense, so the premium is not paired with the full set of weak fundamentals and turbulent conditions.
In the multi-year view, continued club growth and higher merchandise sales could support revenue and operating income: fiscal 2026 revenue and operating income both increased, while constant-currency merchandise sales rose 8.4%. Near term, results are mixed: the latest report was an earnings miss after two earlier beats, and recent performance slipped notably this past month despite remaining in the industry's top half.
The thesis depends on PSMT continuing to expand its club network and sustain merchandise sales growth, while turning those gains into higher operating income. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure; continued strong results and guidance from sector peers such as WMT, COST, and TGT would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PSMT has evidence of business growth, but the expensive valuation raises the bar and the latest earnings miss warrants attention. The multi-year thesis hinges on execution in expansion and sales, with near-term results still uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| PriceSmart is growing sales about 10% with net merchandise sales hitting $1.47 billion. |
| Intact |
| net merchandise sales growth falls below 7% YoY next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fourth Quarter Financial Results Total revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased 13.9% to $1.52 billion compared to $1.33 billion in the same period of the prior year.” “Year-to-Date Financial Results Total revenues for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2026 increased 11.5% to $5.88 billion compared to $5.27 billion in the prior year.” Revenue was $1.516 billion in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improvement | Operating income rose to $75.4 million, showing better profits. | Broken | operating income falls below $65 million next quarter | Operating income: $57.029M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $75 million operating income next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 26, 202657,029,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company recorded operating income of $57.0 million during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 compared to operating income of $52.8 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025.” “The Company recorded operating income during fiscal year 2026 of $261.0 million compared to operating income of $232.5 million in the prior year.” Operating income was $57.029 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expansion of warehouse clubs in Latin America | The company plans to open new clubs in Latin America, supporting growth. | Intact | failure to open new clubs or delays in 2026 | 63-club plan vs 2026 target News confirms 63-club plan and Chile expansion details, reinforcing the qualitative expansion target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “New Club Opening The Company opened its third warehouse club in Jamaica in October 2026.” “In addition, the Company plans to open one new warehouse club on South Camp Road (Kingston), Jamaica in December of 2026, one warehouse club in Villa Nueva, Guatemala in late winter of 2027, one warehouse club in Santo Tomas de Santo Domingo (Heredia), Costa Rica in the spring of 2027, and one warehouse in Comuna Las Condes, Santiago, Chile in the spring of 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.45 → $6.62 · observed estimates
$7.20B → $7.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.45 | $7,200,375,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.45 | $7,200,264,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.62 | $7,117,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.