PriceSmart (PSMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$174.10+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improvement: Operating income ~$65.2M vs $75M target.
PriceSmart is growing sales about 10% with net merchandise sales hitting $1.47 billion. Operating income rose to $75.4 million, showing better profits. The company plans to open new clubs in Latin America, supporting growth. Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $2.91, indicating profit growth.
Comparable sales declines threaten sales growth. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 37.9, above peers. Market pullbacks and sales challenges could pressure margins and earnings.
The market expects about 14% revenue growth and values the stock at a premium with a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.9 versus peer median 17.5. Our fair value is near $83, close to the current price, suggesting limited upside from current estimates.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.50 in fiscal 2026
Breaks if: net merchandise sales growth falls below 7% YoY next quarter
Drive growth in net merchandise sales and comparable net merchandise sales across existing and new warehouse clubs.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net merchandise sales grew from approximately $1.33 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.47 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.45 billion in 2026-Q2, with comparable net merchandise sales also increasing. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated priority.
“Net merchandise sales increased 12.5%, comparable net merchandise sales increased 10.7%.”
“Net merchandise sales grew 9.9%, comparable net merchandise sales increased 7.6%.”
Breaks if: operating income falls below $65 million next quarter
Breaks if: failure to open new clubs or delays in 2026
Open new warehouse clubs in Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Jamaica, and other Latin American markets to grow footprint.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management detailed plans to open new clubs in Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Jamaica, increasing total clubs from 61 in 2026-Q1 to 63 by spring 2027. The trajectory shows active expansion consistent with stated growth priorities.
“Plans for first club in Chile and eleventh club in Costa Rica, targeting spring 2027 openings.”
“Plans for eighth club in Guatemala and other clubs in Jamaica and Costa Rica, aiming for 61 clubs.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state indicates that while recent financial performance has been strong, the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers.
The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium for PSMT, with an expectations gap suggesting that investors are anticipating continued strong performance. However, the current valuation is viewed as unjustified given the sector's challenges.
Management has shown consistent growth in net merchandise sales and operating income, which aligns with their stated priorities. However, there is a moderate risk as the company has a history of missing estimates, although the probability of a miss is currently low.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including whether PSMT can maintain guidance without cuts, the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, and the performance of sector leaders like WMT, COST, and TGT. These elements could significantly influence PSMT's trajectory.
Overall, PSMT's fundamentals are strong, but the expensive valuation and sector headwinds present challenges. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company plans to expand warehouse clubs in Latin America. Decreased political risk supports this expansion. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.