PriceSmart (PSMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$174.10+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PSMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 97.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
PSMT — dividend update
Dated 2026-02-06
Other Events. On February 5, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared the Company’s annual cash dividend in the total amount of $1.40 per share, with $0.70 per share payable on February 27, 2026 to stockholders of record as of February 17, 2026 and $0.70 per share payable on August 31, 2026 to stockholders of record as of August 17, 2026. PriceSmart anticipates the ongoing payment of annual dividends in subsequent periods, although the actual declaration of future dividends, if any, th…
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to showing PriceSmart's sales momentum. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifComparable net merchandise sales growth for the 54 clubs open over 13.5 months exceeds 8.8%.
Less concerning ifNet merchandise sales growth is below 8.8%.
Why it matters: Strong sales in the earnings report would indicate resilience in a tough market.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows sales growth over 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifSales growth is below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better margins may show stronger cost control and pricing power during tough times.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows operating margins over 5% for the quarter.
Worry ifOperating margins fall below 5% in the earnings report.
Why it matters: Consistent growth in comparable sales shows demand strength. It reflects how well PriceSmart is performing.
Supportive ifComparable net merchandise sales increase more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifComparable net merchandise sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,470 loss on $10,000 · 14.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows financial health. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of at least $1.40 per share in August 2026.
Worry ifThe Board does not declare a dividend or reduces the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control and more profit. It shows how well PriceSmart runs its business.
Supportive ifOperating income goes over $65.6 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifOperating income drops below $56.2 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This expansion reinforces PriceSmart's growth strategy. It could enhance revenue from a growing market.
Supportive ifThe eleventh warehouse club in Costa Rica opens as planned in spring 2027.
Worry ifThe opening of the Costa Rica warehouse club is delayed beyond spring 2027.
Why it matters: This shows how well the company controls costs. Slow growth may mean problems in operations.
Worry ifOperating income growth for Q3 is below 10%.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth for Q3 is at or above 10%.
Why it matters: Opening new clubs is key to PriceSmart's growth strategy. Success in these markets can drive future revenue.
Supportive ifPriceSmart opens its first club in Chile and the eleventh club in Costa Rica on schedule in spring 2027.
Worry ifDelays or cancellations in opening the new clubs in Chile or Costa Rica.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows how much money the company makes. This affects investor trust and future investments.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 increases more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth is less than 5% year over year or declines.
Why it matters: This expansion shows PriceSmart's commitment to growth in existing markets. It could boost sales and membership.
Supportive ifThe eighth club opens on time in spring 2027 with strong local engagement.
Worry ifThe opening is delayed or local engagement is low.
Why it matters: PriceSmart's strong operating income growth shows it controls costs well. This helps profits.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Opening in Chile marks a significant expansion. It could boost future revenue and market presence.
Supportive ifThe first warehouse club in Chile opens as planned in spring 2027.
Worry ifThe opening of the Chile warehouse club is delayed beyond spring 2027.
Why it matters: Currency changes can greatly affect revenue. A good change could increase sales.
Watch forForeign currency helps sales by over $27.7 million.
Also watch forForeign currency hurts sales or does not help.
Why it matters: Opening this club is part of PriceSmart's growth strategy. It shows their expansion efforts.
Supportive ifThe new club in La Romana opens as planned in May 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the La Romana club is delayed beyond May 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Expanding in Costa Rica shows PriceSmart's commitment to growth in existing markets. This can strengthen their position.
Supportive ifThe club in Santo Tomas de Santo Domingo opens as planned in spring 2027.
Worry ifThe opening is delayed or canceled. This is due to construction or regulatory issues.
Why it matters: New clubs can drive future sales growth. Delays or cancellations could hurt growth plans.
Watch forConfirmation of the opening of the eighth club in Guatemala by spring 2027.
Also watch forDelays in opening the eighth club beyond spring 2027.
Why it matters: This club marks PriceSmart's entry into a new market. Success here could lead to more clubs in Chile.
Supportive ifThe club opens on schedule in spring 2027 with strong initial membership sign-ups.
Worry ifThe opening is delayed or membership sign-ups are weak.
Why it matters: This metric shows if the sales growth trend is slowing. A drop below 10% may signal weakness.
Worry ifComparable net merchandise sales growth for Q3 falls below 10%.
Less concerning ifComparable net merchandise sales growth for Q3 stays at or above 10%.