Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Phillips 66 (PSX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$259.63-4.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
26.77 → 31.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PSX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $2.4 billion capital budget in 2026 | A primary condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budget. | Intact | capital expenditures fall significantly below $2.4 billion in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $1.308B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Allocate $2.4 billion for 2026 capital budget. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20261,308,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy business with a sector tailwind, rather than a steady compounder. The thesis has improved after a recent earnings beat, but remains on watch because recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence describes PSX as cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence valuation model and a negative expectations gap. Its valuation signal improved recently, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized without the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and a turbulent sector.
Near term, the recent earnings beat and reported $2.8 billion returned to shareholders are positive, while erratic surprises and recent peer misses remain risks. Midstream earnings declined sequentially, despite progress on Coastal Bend and a final investment decision for Western Gateway; debt also fell, and management stated a $2.4 billion capital budget.
The near-term setup would weaken if PSX cuts guidance on its next call, or if sector bellwethers MPC, VLO, and DINO begin missing or guiding lower. Continued strength and higher guidance from those peers would support the sector tailwind, while delivery on Midstream projects and capital priorities matters for the multi-year thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on whether PSX can turn recent improvement and capital discipline into stronger, more consistent fundamentals while the sector backdrop remains supportive. Evidence is mixed, so execution and peer results remain key signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain or grow EPS near $17.9 in 2026 | A primary condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $17.9 for FY26. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $17.9 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $14.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $17.9 for FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202614.08 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage earnings volatility from Hormuz disruptions | A supporting condition in Phillips 66's published investment case. The stated target is Limit earnings volatility from geopolitical disruptions. | Intact | Significant margin losses due to Hormuz disruptions | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand midstream capacity with Zeus and Coastal Bend projects | It is expanding midstream capacity with new projects. | Improving | Delays or cancellations of key midstream expansion projects | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.72 → $31.87 · observed estimates
$142.76B → $168.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.72 | $142,764,931,310 | 19 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.89 | $146,623,338,642 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.86 | $142,764,931,310 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.89 | $146,623,338,642 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.86 | $142,764,931,310 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.98 | $142,764,931,310 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.98 | $142,764,931,310 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.98 | $142,764,931,310 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $19.01 | $146,623,338,642 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $19.91 | $146,859,809,380 | 20 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $20.58 | $147,159,265,180 | 20 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $20.58 | $147,159,265,180 | 20 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.73 | $149,061,112,577 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.04 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.16 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.47 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.47 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.47 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.77 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.77 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.77 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.09 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.09 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.96 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.11 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.11 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.11 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.11 | $154,004,341,794 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $25.45 | $155,163,282,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $25.45 | $155,163,282,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $25.45 | $155,163,282,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $25.45 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $25.48 | $155,350,182,797 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $25.50 | $155,655,773,898 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $26.31 | $159,656,123,098 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $26.31 | $159,656,123,098 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $26.77 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $26.77 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $26.77 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $27.23 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $27.23 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $27.23 | $161,522,623,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $27.21 | $162,097,423,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $27.32 | $162,046,923,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $27.78 | $162,046,923,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $29.06 | $162,046,923,098 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $28.99 | $162,163,814,490 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $30.40 | $163,656,039,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $30.64 | $163,656,039,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $30.62 | $163,637,139,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $30.62 | $163,637,139,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $30.81 | $163,637,139,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $30.81 | $163,637,139,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $30.71 | $163,729,339,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $30.71 | $164,687,339,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $30.73 | $164,485,339,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $30.79 | $165,913,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $30.79 | $165,913,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $30.79 | $165,913,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $30.79 | $165,913,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $30.79 | $165,913,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $30.79 | $166,115,189,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $31.20 | $166,081,089,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $31.40 | $166,180,589,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $31.82 | $167,531,659,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $31.82 | $167,531,659,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $31.82 | $167,531,659,586 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $31.83 | $168,820,760,367 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $31.87 | $168,491,860,367 | 11 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.