Phillips 66 (PSX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$247.04-4.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PSX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PSX — President transition
Dated 2026-10-05
Executive Vice President — Richard G. Harbison: The filing discloses a planned retirement of an Executive Vice President, which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of a top executive.
Why it matters: Refining drove most of Q3 earnings. Strong margins and high run rates helped lift results.
Watch forQ4 refining margin is at least $38 per barrel, and crude capacity use is at least 98%.
Also watch forQ4 refining margin is below $24.08 per barrel, or crude capacity use is below 95%.
Why it matters: The sector data show shrinking revenue, though recent signals point to a possible shift. Positive growth would mark a change in the sector trend.
Watch forThe sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive in the next reported sector update.
Also watch forThe sector's three-year revenue growth remains at or below zero in the next reported sector update.
Why it matters: Debt fell sharply in Q3. Further progress would show that cash strength is reaching the balance sheet.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows net debt below $12.7 billion and total debt below $18.5 billion.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows net debt above $16.5 billion, reversing the Q3 decline.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $309 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,728 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.