Phillips 66 (PSX)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$255.09+0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PSX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PSX — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-21
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Why it matters: This indicates progress towards the $2.4 billion capital budget for 2026. It shows commitment to growth.
Supportive ifCapital expenditures reach $600 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $500 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growing without buying shows good management. It also means strong competition in the market.
Supportive ifMidstream segment reports revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Worry ifMidstream segment reports revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Shippers' commitments show strong demand. This means growth potential for Phillips 66's Midstream.
Supportive ifThere is news of more long-term shipper commitments on the Western Gateway Pipeline.
Worry ifNo new shipper commitments were announced. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Phillips 66's commitment to growth and investment in key projects.
Supportive ifCapital spending hits or goes over $1.3 billion for growth projects in 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $1 billion for growth projects in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,728 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower debt helps financial stability. If debt goes up, it raises worries about financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt reported below $20 billion.
Worry ifTotal debt increases back above $21 billion.
Why it matters: High liquidity shows financial health. It helps manage market ups and downs.
Supportive ifLiquidity stays above $6 billion for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifLiquidity falls below $5 billion for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Midstream income is critical for overall financial health. A decrease signals ongoing challenges in this segment.
Worry ifMidstream adjusted pre-tax income will rise above $700 million soon.
Less concerning ifMidstream adjusted pre-tax income drops below $500 million. This shows deeper issues.
Why it matters: Regular returns to shareholders show strong finances. They also show a commitment to spending.
Supportive ifReturns to shareholders are over 50% of operating cash flow in Q3.
Worry ifReturns to shareholders drop below 40% of operating cash flow in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong refining margins signal good profitability. If margins drop, it could hurt earnings.
Supportive ifRefining margins remain above $24 per barrel for Q3.
Worry ifRefining margins fall below $20 per barrel for Q3.
Why it matters: This plant is key for Midstream growth. Delays could impact growth targets.
Supportive ifIron Mesa gas plant starts operations as planned in Q1 2027.
Worry ifIron Mesa gas plant startup is delayed beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Higher returns show strong cash flow management. Lower returns may raise concerns.
Supportive ifQ3 returns to shareholders are over $887 million.
Worry ifReturn of capital to shareholders drops below $700 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher spending may indicate strong growth plans. Lower spending could signal caution.
Watch forQ3 capital spending is over $726 million.
Also watch forQ3 capital spending is under $600 million.