Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
QuidelOrtho (QDEL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$12.84-10.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.44 → 1.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QDEL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 17.5% in FY26 | A primary condition in QuidelOrtho's published investment case. The stated target is >= 17.5%. | Improving | Margin falls below 17.5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Importantly, we believe the underlying business remains strong and we are well positioned to deliver on our objectives to expand our adjusted EBITDA margin and improve cash flow in 2026.”” “Blaser, President and Chief Executive Officer of QuidelOrtho.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk healthcare business with a multi-year view tied to product growth, acquisitions, and better margins. The thesis is currently intact, though recent earnings have been erratic and management’s cash-flow delivery is mixed.
The evidence describes QDEL as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, while its pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low. That suggests modest expectations, but confidence in the valuation read is only medium and the company is loss-making.
Near term, the latest margin recovery offers some support, but withdrawn free-cash-flow guidance and a recent quarterly miss leave execution uncertain. Over the multi-year view, Point of Care growth and the LEX Diagnostics acquisition support expansion, while China revenue pressure and weaker employment data are risks.
A key near-term swing factor is whether QDEL reverses its lowered guidance and improves execution at the next update. The broader setup also depends on China-related pressure easing, margins and cash flow improving, and healthcare peers continuing to report strength.
Over the next one to three years, the long-term thesis rests on turning product growth into durable margins and cash flow, with elevated execution and economic risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage China NHSA pricing and geopolitical disruptions | A supporting condition in QuidelOrtho's published investment case. The stated target is Limit revenue decline in Labs segment to less than 5%. | Intact | Revenue decline in Labs segment exceeds 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful CFO transition and financial discipline | A new CFO was hired to strengthen financial discipline. | Improving | CFO transition causes financial or operational disruption | CFO transition complete; $80M savings target vs $2.53B revenue Micah Young hired as CFO in June 2026. Q3 2026 EPS beat by $0.11. Company expects >$80M in 2027 savings. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow at least $100 million in FY26 | QuidelOrtho aims to improve profit margins and cash flow in 2026. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-136.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-136,100,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Importantly, we believe the underlying business remains strong and we are well positioned to deliver on our objectives to expand our adjusted EBITDA margin and improve cash flow in 2026.”” “Blaser, President and Chief Executive Officer of QuidelOrtho.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue at or above $2.7 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in QuidelOrtho's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.7 billion. | Broken | Revenue falls below $2.7 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $618.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026618,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also advanced our key strategic priorities, including the U.S. launch of our High-Sensitivity Troponin assay and the rollout of the VITROS 450 platform in select international markets.” “We believe these innovations enhance our portfolio and position us to drive sustainable, long-term growth,” Blaser continued.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.46 → $1.43 · observed estimates
$2.80B → $2.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.46 | $2,799,088,702 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.39 | $2,778,489,227 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.47 | $2,591,391,058 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.47 | $2,591,391,058 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.47 | $2,591,547,958 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $2,591,623,567 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $2,591,623,567 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.44 | $2,591,547,971 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.43 | $2,590,887,543 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.