QuidelOrtho (QDEL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.97+0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QDEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QDEL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, QuidelOrtho Corporation (“QuidelOrtho”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for its first quarter ended March 29, 2026 and will hold an earnings conference call at 2:00 p.m., Pacific Time, on May 5, 2026 to discuss such results. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished…
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA margin means better control of costs. It shows more efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 22% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good management and strong finances.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $0 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Labs and Point of Care is crucial for overall revenue. It shows demand strength outside of China.
Supportive ifQ3 Labs revenue growth above 4% and Point of Care growth above 16% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Labs revenue growth below 4% and Point of Care growth below 16% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in pricing rules could hurt lab sales in China.
Watch forManagement says the final NHSA guidelines will not hurt revenue much.
Also watch forManagement warns that NHSA pricing changes could hurt revenue a lot.
Why it matters: A big drop would show weak demand. This is true for point-of-care diagnostics.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $2.43 billion, which is a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for QuidelOrtho's finances. Improvement shows they are stable.
Supportive ifManagement says cash flow from operations is up from last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations continues to decline or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Better margins would show progress in managing money and cash flow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 23% in Q2 results. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 23%. This shows ongoing financial pressure.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This can lift market mood.
Supportive ifOperating income was over -$20M for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains worse than -$30M.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key measure of QuidelOrtho's performance. A drop below 10% signals trouble.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If Point of Care revenue keeps falling, it shows weak demand. This will hurt growth.
Worry ifQ2 Point of Care revenue declines year over year worse than -34%.
Less concerning ifPoint of Care revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: His leadership could improve money management and cash flow.
Supportive ifMicah Young's first quarter as CFO shows better financial performance.
Worry ifNo clear improvement in financial performance metrics. This shows challenges in the transition.
Why it matters: Ongoing disruptions may hurt sales and revenue forecasts. This is especially true in EMEA.
Worry ifRevenue from EMEA shows a strong recovery after the conflict.
Less concerning ifRevenue from EMEA continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: Better integration may enhance QuidelOrtho's products. This could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached integration goals in the first six months.
Worry ifIntegration problems can cause delays or missed goals.
Why it matters: Changes in Labs revenue will show how pricing affects sales in China.
Worry ifLabs revenue stabilizes or grows year over year despite NHSA pricing changes.
Less concerning ifLabs revenue declines more than 5% year over year due to NHSA pricing impact.
Why it matters: The LEX acquisition is key for Point-of-Care growth. Its success will show if the strategy is working.
Supportive ifManagement says LEX Diagnostics will bring in a lot of revenue soon.
Worry ifManagement says LEX Diagnostics has not helped revenue growth.
Why it matters: Success in product launches could drive revenue growth amid current challenges.
Supportive ifSales from new products exceed $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales from new products fall below $30 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth outside China shows strong demand. It also shows good management of challenges there.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth excluding China surpasses 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth excluding China falls below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Reinstating guidance would show confidence. It would show good cash flow and stability.
Supportive ifManagement reinstates free cash flow guidance for the remainder of 2026.
Worry ifManagement continues to withhold free cash flow guidance.
Why it matters: Updates on pricing changes will show how revenue from China is affected.
Watch forManagement gives a good update. It shows revenue in China is stabilizing or growing.
Also watch forManagement reports more drops in China revenue. This is due to NHSA pricing changes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$307 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $802 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,185 loss on $10,000 · 71.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.