Qualys (QLYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$171.65-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QLYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QLYS — officer change
Dated 2026-06-11
The filing is about the approval of an equity incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Operating income growth is key to long-term profitability. A drop below 20% may raise concerns.
Worry ifGAAP operating income grew less than 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating income growth reported at 20% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth helps profits and shows good cost control. It shows growth can continue.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $55.6 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is below $54.6 million.
Why it matters: Net income is growing steadily. This shows good financial management. It helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet income grows by at least 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifNet income growth is flat or negative in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: If GAAP net income per share is below $1.24, it shows weaker profits. This may lower investor trust in the company's finances.
Worry ifGAAP net income per share reported below $1.24 for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income per share reported at or above $1.31 for Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $494 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,046 loss on $10,000 · 50.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next earnings call will share news on revenue growth and the outlook for this year.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 9% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects Qualys. A drop below median may hurt performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth, impacting investor confidence. Management expects 9-10% growth for Q3.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow shows good operations and financial health. It gives investors confidence in cash generation.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds 50% of revenue for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below 50% of revenue for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This may show problems in making money. It can affect overall financial health.
Worry ifGAAP net income growth reported below 10% year-over-year for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income growth reported at 10% or higher year-over-year for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A miss may indicate weakening performance.
Worry ifGAAP net income per diluted share reported below $1.43.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income per diluted share reported at $1.43 or higher.
Why it matters: Strong use of AI products could boost growth and help in the market.
Watch forManagement says there is strong growth in AI Risk Operations Center use.
Also watch forManagement notes slow use or no data for AI products.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and supports growth momentum. It confirms management's confidence in revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at $178.5 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $177.5 million.
Why it matters: Qualys is growing its operating income. This means they are managing costs well. This is key for making money over time.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 2% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: If operating cash flow falls below $50 million, it may show cash issues. This could worry investors about financial health.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is less than $50 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow stays above $60 million.