Qualys (QLYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$171.65-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QLYS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $172 QLYS trades at 24× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median, but our blended $173 fair value is roughly in line with the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $130–$220. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $180.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $432.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $440.10 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $51.13 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$130.00 – $220.00 (median $180.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 18% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.05/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $221.81 |
| 40.3 |
| 5.50 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $66.94 | 9.5 | 6.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $268.86 | 30.0 | 8.96 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $153.14 | 27.8 | 5.50 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $94.27 | 4.7 | 20.07 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $75.40 | 13.7 | 5.50 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $41.41 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $117.74 | 21.4 | 5.50 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $313.00 | 40.3 | 7.76 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $316.93 | 40.3 | 7.86 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $408.90 | 30.0 | 13.63 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $248.45 | 27.8 | 8.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $112.39 | 4.7 | 23.93 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $122.33 | 13.7 | 8.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $191.01 | 21.4 | 8.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $402.06 | 40.3 | 9.97 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $540.77 | 30.0 | 18.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $263.53 | 27.8 | 9.46 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $119.21 | 4.7 | 25.38 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $129.76 | 13.7 | 9.46 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $202.60 | 21.4 | 9.46 | Analyst | high |