Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Q2 Holdings, Inc. (QTWO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.62+1.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.46 → 3.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QTWO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income growth through revenue and cost efficiency | Profit and net income improved strongly, with operating income rising from $11M to $27.7M. | Intact | Net income falls below $15M in any quarter of FY26 | Net income: $33.22M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $26.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202633,220,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
QTWO is a growth-focused software business with improving operating performance, but it is not yet consistently profitable under the earnings-quality measure. The long-term thesis is intact, though near-term risk is elevated and confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a justified pricing tag and low measured fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be somewhat ahead of the evidence, while the valuation score has fallen and company momentum has improved.
In the near term, recent revenue growth and rising operating income support continued progress, and management is on track on growth and adjusted margin priorities. However, QTWO reported an earnings miss after a prior beat, peers have also missed recently, and a CEO transition adds uncertainty; broad AI and fraud product availability remains a work in progress.
The multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth and operating margin progress, alongside broader delivery on AI and fraud products. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while easier rates or steadier results from major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, QTWO’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but the earnings misses, CEO transition, and unfinished product rollout keep execution risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income increase through cost management and efficiency |
| Profit and net income improved strongly, with operating income rising from $11M to $27.7M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $11M in any quarter of FY26 |
Operating income: $33.958M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $27.7M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202633,958,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10 to 12 percent | A primary condition in Q2 Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 11.93% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202611.931841 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Q2 Holdings is providing updated guidance for the full-year 2026 as follows: • Total revenue of $888.0 million to $892.0 million, which would represent year-over-year growth of 12 percent.” “"Credit unions were a key contributor again this quarter, including multiple Tier 1 wins and some of our largest contracted deals in the period.” Revenue was $225.771 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.27 → $3.47 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.27 | $969,379,040 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.32 | $968,866,831 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.27 | $969,379,040 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.27 | $969,379,040 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.27 | $969,379,040 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.27 | $969,379,040 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.41 | $971,222,040 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.51 | $973,071,516 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.51 | $973,071,516 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.28 | $974,558,310 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.28 | $974,558,310 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.28 | $974,558,310 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.52 | $973,836,334 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.45 | $973,862,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.46 | $974,373,898 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.49 | $974,398,983 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.49 | $974,398,983 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.49 | $974,392,283 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.49 | $974,392,283 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.49 | $974,392,283 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.49 | $974,392,283 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.49 | $974,393,537 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.49 | $974,393,537 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.49 | $974,393,537 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.49 | $974,393,537 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.49 | $974,393,537 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.54 | $977,976,770 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.47 | $980,451,819 | 10 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.