Q2 Holdings, Inc. (QTWO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.13-3.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QTWO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QTWO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Q2 Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong capital use and management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: New AI products could enhance Q2's competitive position and drive future growth. It aligns with management's focus on innovation.
Supportive ifA new AI product or feature may enhance customer engagement.
Worry ifNo big AI product announcements by Q2 2026. This shows slower innovation.
Why it matters: A high EBITDA margin shows good cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was 27% or higher in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 27%. This suggests there may be cost problems.
Why it matters: If backlog growth is below 2%, it shows weak demand. This affects future revenue.
Worry ifBacklog growth was below 2% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth reported at or above 2% sequentially in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,004 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below 8%, it may signal a slowdown in demand. This could impact investor confidence in Q2's growth trajectory.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was less than 8% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 8% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Winning a big contract could increase revenue and strengthen Q2's market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new significant contract with a Tier 1 bank in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo significant contract wins announced in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and supports ongoing revenue growth. Investors look for consistent performance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $218.5 million or higher, confirming strong demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $218.5 million. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog growth signal shifts in customer demand and future revenue potential. It's critical for long-term growth.
Watch forBacklog growth was over 19% year-over-year. This shows strong future demand.
Also watch forBacklog growth was below 19% year-over-year. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Progress in AI strategy can enhance Q2's competitive edge and drive future growth. It's key to their innovation narrative.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about new AI features or partnerships. These will improve their platform.
Worry ifNo big updates on AI strategy. This may mean slow innovation.
Why it matters: Strong adoption of AI products could validate Q2's strategy and drive future growth. It reflects customer trust in Q2's innovations.
Supportive ifAt least 20% of attendees at CONNECT 26 report interest in adopting new AI products.
Worry ifLess than 10% of attendees express interest in adopting new AI products.
Why it matters: RPO growth shows strong future revenue and demand for Q2's services. It shows management's focus on net income.
Supportive ifRPO reported to grow by $46 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRPO growth was below $46 million. This suggests weaker future demand.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may affect QTWO's performance. It signals a broader trend.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Growth in net income would indicate better overall financial health. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifNet income shows growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income declines compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This can help profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than Q1 results.
Worry ifOperating income is worse than Q1 results.
Why it matters: More people are using AI products. This means Q2 met customer needs and drove new ideas.
Supportive ifReported increase in the number of customers using AI products by over 20% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big rise in AI product use. This shows customers are not adopting them quickly.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases over $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks were announced. This shows a lack of confidence in spending.