Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Rubrik Inc (RBRK)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$105.74-11.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.77 → 0.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RBRK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow rises to about $298 million | Free cash flow guidance rose to about $298 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $194 million in FY27 | Free cash flow: $71.247M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$298M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 202671,247,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth software business with a profitability transition still in progress, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: subscription growth is strong, but recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort and overall signals have turned mixed.
RBRK trades at a 4.2-times premium to peers, with valuation support tied to optionality, or the possibility of future growth beyond current results. The evidence labels expectations as justified, with a modest 0.06 expectations gap, but model confidence is low and the company remains loss-making.
Near term, subscription ARR growth is a clear strength: it reached $1.66 billion in 2026-Q3, up 33% year over year, while net new subscription ARR rose 35%. Operating leverage is improving, with a smaller GAAP loss per share and a higher contribution margin, but cash flow margin fell from 19% to 15% quarter over quarter, and earnings surprises have been erratic.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining subscription growth while continuing to narrow losses and improve cash flow margins. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, RBRK offers a strong growth profile, but the thesis remains unproven because profitability is incomplete and recent results lag the industry cohort. The key test is whether growth converts into steadier operating and cash flow progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Rubrik Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -$52.6M. |
| Intact |
| Operating losses worsen beyond -$94 million |
Operating income: $-71.902M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$52.6M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 1, 2026-71,902,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS reaches $0.25 to $0.35 per share | The company expects positive earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.35 in fiscal 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.0 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.30 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.25 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 2026-0.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billion | A primary condition in Rubrik Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.64B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.28 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $427.26M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.64B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 1, 2026427,260,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64 → $0.77 · observed estimates
$2.00B → $2.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.64 | $1,997,318,937 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.64 | $1,996,992,310 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.64 | $1,996,986,132 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.64 | $1,997,341,688 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.64 | $1,997,341,688 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.64 | $1,997,341,688 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.64 | $1,997,341,688 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.64 | $1,998,249,125 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.64 | $1,998,247,651 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.64 | $1,998,247,651 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.64 | $1,998,247,651 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.76 | $2,048,347,691 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.76 | $2,048,347,691 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.76 | $2,048,347,691 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.77 | $2,051,064,635 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.77 | $2,054,042,413 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,554 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,554 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,554 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,554 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,554 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.77 | $2,054,031,555 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.77 | $2,054,032,370 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.77 | $2,054,550,888 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.77 | $2,054,550,888 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.77 | $2,054,675,760 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.77 | $2,054,175,760 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.77 | $2,054,175,760 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.77 | $2,054,175,760 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.77 | $2,054,175,760 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.77 | $2,054,175,760 | 15 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 29 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.