Rubrik Inc (RBRK)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$105.74-11.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RBRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
RBRK — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Rakefet Russak-Aminoach: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to an expanded board, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Rubrik raised its fiscal 2027 ARR outlook twice. Another increase would support the growth story.
Supportive ifOn December 3, reported subscription ARR is above $1.885 billion, the top of the fiscal 2027 range.
Worry ifReported subscription ARR is below $1.880 billion, the bottom of the fiscal 2027 range.
Why it matters: Rubrik raised its full-year free cash flow range, but Q2 free cash flow margin fell to 15% from 19%. Q3 results can show whether cash generation stays on track.
Worry ifQ3 results or updated guidance put fiscal 2027 free cash flow below $323 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 free cash flow stays within or above the $323 million to $333 million range.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 14.0% in Q2, and Rubrik set a 14% Q3 goal. A miss would weaken the case for better cost control.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP subscription ARR margin is under 14%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP subscription ARR margin is at least 14%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$251 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,202 loss on $10,000 · 52.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.