Rubrik Inc (RBRK)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$93.67+1.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RBRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RBRK — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Rakefet Russak-Aminoach: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to an expanded board, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs. This can improve overall financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income is up by over $10 million.
Worry ifOperating income is up by less than $5 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost control. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income should be -$50 million or better.
Worry ifOperating income should be worse than -$52 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows progress towards making money. This can make investors feel better.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income per share is reported between $0.07 and $0.09.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income per share is reported below $0.05.
Why it matters: Positive EPS is key for Rubrik's growth. It impacts how investors feel.
Watch forQ2 EPS reported as positive.
Also watch forQ2 EPS reported as negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$255 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,552 loss on $10,000 · 55.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this range shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within $429 million to $431 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $425 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows a move towards making money. This can make investors feel better.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income per share reported at $0.05 or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income per share reported below $0.03.
Why it matters: Good EPS guidance shows Rubrik is moving toward making more money. This can help investors.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for fiscal 2027 confirmed at $0.25 or higher.
Worry ifEPS guidance for fiscal 2027 revised down below $0.25.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows Rubrik is growing fast. It shows management believes in more growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $397 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $395 million.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Rubrik is controlling costs better. This is key for future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income was more than -$52 million.
Worry ifOperating income was worse than -$52 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows a move toward making money. It would help investor trust.
Supportive ifEPS reported at $0.35 or more.
Worry ifEPS reported below $0.25.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue and profitability. It is a major event for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive revenue and EPS growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline or continued losses.
Why it matters: The tech sector's growth phase affects Rubrik's performance. Slowing growth could hurt them.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Reaching this EPS target would be a big step toward making money. It shows Rubrik's finances are getting better.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported at $0.05 or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $0.03.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Rubrik. Strong growth signals success in their strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A confirmed earnings beat shows Rubrik's growth is on track and could attract more investors.
Supportive ifEarnings report confirms the beat announced on June 4.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a miss or no beat.
Why it matters: Subscription ARR growth is key to Rubrik's strategy. A drop signals weaker demand.
Worry ifSubscription ARR growth exceeds 33% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSubscription ARR growth falls below 33% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows Rubrik's market position. Slower growth may raise concerns.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth exceeds 38% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth falls below 38% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Free cash flow margin is crucial for financial health. A decline may indicate issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow margin remains at or above 15% in Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow margin drops below 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating leverage means more efficiency. If there is no improvement, it may cause worries.
Supportive ifSubscription ARR contribution margin goes above 14% in Q3.
Worry ifSubscription ARR contribution margin does not improve from 14% in Q3.