Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.14+1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Rocky Brands aims to grow revenue about 6% in 2026. It plans to improve gross margins to low 40% range. The company started a $7.5 million share buyback program. Profit per share is expected near $3.26 in 2026.
Revenue fell from $139.7M to $124.4M in early 2026. Ecommerce hurt profit margins despite more sales. Gross profit dropped from $57.7M to $45.4M recently. These show weak growth and margin pressure risks.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $41. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth. Our view aligns but sees margin risks and mixed growth progress.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.96 in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 40% in 2026-Q3
Restore and maintain gross margins in the low 40 percent range by mitigating tariff impacts and optimizing sourcing.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin declined to 36.5% in 2026-Q1 due to higher tariffs but rebounded sharply to 51.4% in 2026-Q2, aided by tariff refunds. Management's guidance for a path back to low 40% margins aligns with this trajectory, showing delivering progress with some volatility.
“Gross margin increased to 51.4% of net sales compared to 41.0% in the year-ago quarter, primarily due to IEEPA tariff refunds.”
“Gross margin decreased to 36.5% of net sales compared to 41.2% in the year-ago quarter due to higher tariffs.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~6% in FY26
Drive net sales growth and segment momentum through strong brand performance and bookings in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales grew from $114.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $118.4 million in 2026-Q2, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1% and 12.0% respectively. Management emphasized strong brand performance and bookings driving Wholesale segment momentum, indicating delivery on growth opportunities.
“Our second quarter performance was highlighted by 12% sales growth... strong bookings in the quarter will provide good Wholesale segment momentum.”
“The momentum we experienced in our business last year carried over into 2026, driving net sales growth of approximately 9% for the second consecutive quarter.”
Breaks if: Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced
Execute the authorized 12-month share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million starting February 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The Board authorized a $7.5 million share repurchase program starting February 2026. No financial data on repurchase execution is available yet, so progress cannot be assessed.
“Board authorized a new 12-month share repurchase program of up to $7.5 million starting February 24, 2026.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance.
The market currently prices RCKY as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. There is no significant fragility priced in, suggesting that the market is not overly concerned about immediate risks.
Management is focused on growth opportunities and improving gross margins, with recent sales growth indicating progress. However, there is some volatility in gross margins, and near-term risks include a low probability of missing earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of key sector peers. If inflation rises or guidance is cut, it could negatively impact RCKY's outlook.
Overall, RCKY's fundamentals are strong, but external factors could pose risks. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Strong revenue growth supports 2026 growth objectives. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.