Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.98-4.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.20 → 4.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RCKY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $3.26 in 2026 | A primary condition in Rocky Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.96. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.96 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.69 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.96. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261.69 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap consumer discretionary business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. Its thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and strong financial performance, but elevated risk and uneven margin quality temper that strength.
The evidence describes valuation as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline and low fragility. Valuation has risen sharply in recent months, so the earlier relative-cheapness signal needs context; the snapshot does not show that expectations are especially demanding.
Near term, recent results support continued sales growth: reported sales rose year over year in both 2026-Q2 and Q3, and the company posted earnings beats in October and July. Margins improved in Q2 and Q3, but refunds and a temporary inventory benefit contributed, while erratic earnings surprises and tariff exposure remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sales growth continuing and margin recovery becoming less reliant on temporary tariff-related benefits. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers such as NKE, DECK, and CROX could also shape the sector backdrop.
For the 1-3 year view, strong sales execution and recent results keep the thesis intact, but the durability of margins and exposure to tariffs are important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to improve gross margins to low 40% range. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 40% in 2026-Q3 |
Gross margin: 45.02% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=40% gross margin. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Nov 3, 202645.021396 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin in the third quarter of 2026 was $62.5 million, or 45.0% of net sales, compared to $49.3 million, or 40.2% of net sales, for the same period last year.” “Moving forward, the impact from higher tariffs begins to lessen in the second quarter which, along with current top-line trends, provides a clear path back to gross margins in the low 40 percent range and improvement in profitability over the second half of the year."” Gross profit was $62.496 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows about 6% in 2026 | A primary condition in Rocky Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~6% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $7.5 million share buyback program | The company started a $7.5 million share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.09 → $4.28 · observed estimates
$0.54B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.09 | $537,260,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.20 | $547,725,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.25 | $555,225,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.28 | $561,890,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.