Rocky Brands, Inc. (RCKY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.14+1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCKY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
RCKY — dividend update
Dated 2026-05-18
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, the Board of Directors of Rocky Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized an increase of the Company’s quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share of outstanding common stock. The increased dividend will be payable on June 15, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 1, 2026. On May 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the increase in quarterly cash dividend, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99 and incorpor…
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows Rocky Brands is taking advantage of new chances. This is important for future success.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue shows growth compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue continues to decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the Wholesale segment shows strong demand and good brand management. This is key for total revenue.
Supportive ifWholesale segment sales grow year over year by more than 7.9%.
Worry ifWholesale segment sales are down compared to last year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.17 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is expected in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales growth signals demand for Rocky Brands' products. This supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifRetail segment sales grow at least 15% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifRetail segment sales growth falls below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $323 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,080 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds helped Q2 earnings a lot. If they are less in Q3, profits could drop.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show a big boost from tariff refunds.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings show no contribution or a negative impact from tariff refunds.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will clarify if the earnings miss was a one-time issue or part of a larger trend.
Watch forQ2 earnings were better than what analysts expected. They also improved from Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss expectations again and show further decline.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Rocky Brands to prove it can capitalize on market opportunities. A positive revenue trend would indicate success.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grows year over year, exceeding $130M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines further, falling below $120M.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin would show that management expects to recover from tariff effects. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin reported at or above 40%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 36.5%.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth would show that people still want Rocky's brands. This supports management's plan for growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 9%.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback could show that management believes in the company's worth and future cash flow.
Supportive ifShares were bought back under the $7.5 million program.
Worry ifNo updates or progress reported on the share repurchase program.