Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Radian Group, Inc. (RDN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$37.27+1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.21 → 5.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RDN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete divestiture of non-core businesses by Q3 2026 | Radian aims to finish selling non-core businesses by Q3 2026. | Intact | Divestiture not completed by Q3 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an insurance expansion story with a value tilt, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on track in its specialty-insurance growth, but the overall state remains watch because recent performance trails peers and management has been volatile.
RDN is cheap versus peers, and the evidence suggests expectations are below the model’s baseline. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but these signals do not remove the risk that weak execution or guidance could challenge the current expectations.
Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and higher primary mortgage insurance in force show progress in management’s expansion strategy, though the revenue increase also reflects the Inigo acquisition. Near term, the recent earnings miss, below-peer performance, and CEO and CFO transitions leave execution uncertain; the next guidance update is an important risk.
The thesis depends on management sustaining specialty-insurance expansion and completing the planned divestiture of non-core businesses. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop for RDN.
For the next 1 to 3 years, RDN has credible expansion progress and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but recent results and leadership transitions make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It keeps paying a dividend of $0.255 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.255 |
Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.255. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.255 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Radian delivered strong second quarter results as we benefit from our transformation into a global multi-line specialty insurer,” said Radian Chief Executive Officer Rick Thornberry.” ““This quarter marks a defining milestone for Radian, our first as a global multi-line specialty insurer following the successful acquisition of Inigo.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve EPS of $4.45 for full year 2026 | Earnings per share are guided at $4.45 for full year 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $4.45 in 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.85 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS = $4.45. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.85 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase cash from operating activities to $285 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations rose to $285 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $285 million | Cash from operations: $627.957M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $285 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026627,957,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.49 → $5.15 · observed estimates
$2.08B → $2.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.41 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.41 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.49 | $2,083,028,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.41 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.41 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.43 | $2,076,761,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.43 | $2,076,761,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.25 | $2,542,206,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.39 | $2,337,076,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.16 | $2,377,653,500 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.20 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.21 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.21 | $2,404,102,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.15 | $2,374,202,333 | 4 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.