Radian Group, Inc. (RDN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.66-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve EPS of $4.45 for full year 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $0.87 vs $4.45 target (-80.5%).
Radian aims to finish selling non-core businesses by Q3 2026. It keeps paying a dividend of $0.255 per share. Cash from operations rose to $285 million in Q1 2026. Earnings per share are guided at $4.45 for full year 2026.
Radian faces leadership changes and some executive departures. Litigation and stock sales by insiders may hurt confidence. The company’s dividend and cash flow targets could be at risk.
The stock trades about 20% below our fair value near $47. Analysts expect 33% revenue growth. Our view agrees with this but sees risks in execution.
Breaks if: Divestiture not completed by Q3 2026
Radian aims to complete the divestiture of its Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses by the end of Q3 2026.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.255
Continue paying a quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share to stockholders.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.255 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's commitment to stable capital return to stockholders. The trajectory is delivering as promised.
“Paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share”
“Paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share”
“Paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share”
“Paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share”
“Paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.45 in 2026
Radian aims to complete the divestiture of its Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses by the end of Q3 2026.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $285 million
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to strengthen liquidity and capital position.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $713M in 2025-Q2 but improved significantly to $343M in 2026-Q2, reflecting a strong recovery in operating cash flow. Management's focus on liquidity and capital is showing delivering progress.
“Cash from operating activities was $343 million”
“Cash from operating activities was $285 million”
“Cash from operating activities was $407 million”
“Cash from operating activities was $358 million”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $713 million”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story within the financial sector. The current thesis state indicates a weakened outlook due to recent earnings misses and a drop in financial performance relative to peers.
The market currently prices RDN as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be anticipating challenges ahead, especially given the recent financial performance trends.
Management is focused on expanding and diversifying as a global multi-line specialty insurer, which has shown some progress. However, the company has a history of consecutive earnings misses, which poses a moderate risk to future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide a favorable backdrop, while any negative shifts could further challenge RDN's outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RDN's performance will depend on both management execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company’s recent financial performance fell from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reason to own the stock. Additionally, the latest earnings report missed expectations, further challenging the outlook. The market's perception of RDN's valuation remains low compared to peers and industry averages.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.