Radian Group, Inc. (RDN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.66-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RDN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RDN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the sector. A drop could signal a slowdown.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations is key for financial health. It shows Radian can grow and pay back shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations will be positive next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations will turn negative again.
Why it matters: Completing the divestiture plan will let Radian focus on its main insurance work. This can help it operate better and make more money.
Supportive ifAll non-core business sales are done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFurther delays in completing the divestiture plan beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. A cut could worry investors.
Worry ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.255 per share.
Less concerning ifThe company announces a reduction in the dividend per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,434 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to Radian's transformation into a multi-line insurer. A strong Q3 would show this strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue grows year over year by more than 80%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth falls below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in primary insurance shows strong demand and good market position.
Supportive ifPrimary mortgage insurance in force is over $284 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPrimary mortgage insurance in force stays below $284 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Eric Ray will retire on July 1, 2026. This may affect Radian's digital strategy.
Watch forA new Chief Digital Officer was announced. They have a strong digital strategy.
Also watch forThere was no news about a successor or unclear plans for digital projects.
Why it matters: The Inigo acquisition is key to Radian's growth. Revenue changes will show its effectiveness.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q2 is over $500 million. This shows Inigo is integrating well.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q2 is under $450 million. This suggests there are integration problems.
Why it matters: An increase in defaults could signal weakening in the mortgage insurance sector.
Worry ifPercentage of primary loans in default rises above 2.56%.
Less concerning ifThe percentage of primary loans in default is under 2.33%. This shows improvement.
Why it matters: Stable net income is a priority. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ2 net income remains stable or improves compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income declines year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Radian wants to return money to shareholders. This can help build investor trust.
Supportive ifRadian declares a dividend of $0.255 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifRadian cuts the dividend below $0.255 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing these sales shows Radian's focus on core insurance. This could boost efficiency and profits.
Supportive ifAll non-core businesses are sold or wound down by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifAny non-core business remains unsold or not wound down by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in this metric means strong performance and good integration of Inigo.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted net operating income per share is more than $1.14 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted net operating income per share is less than $1.14 in Q3 2026.