Radian Group, Inc. (RDN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$37.27+1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RDN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 37.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RDN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2026, Inigo Corporate Member Limited (“ICML”), a company incorporated in England and Wales and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Radian Group Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Radian Group”), amended and restated its existing letter of credit facility with a syndicate of participating banks. As further described below, among other things, the amendments add Radian Group as guarantor and increase the aggregate lender commitments from $620 mill…
Why it matters: Radian set reserves for expected and possible claims tied to the conflict. More claims could weigh on Specialty results.
Worry ifRadian reports more claims from the Middle East conflict, or a Specialty combined ratio above 97.7%.
Less concerning ifRadian reports no new reserves for conflict claims. Specialty's combined ratio is below 97.7%.
Why it matters: Defaults rose year over year in Q2, though they fell from Q1. A further rise could raise claims costs.
Worry ifThe share of primary loans in default rises above 2.47% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifThe default share falls below 2.47%, with mortgage claims and loss costs remaining controlled.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,292 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.