Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.95+0.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REFI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The text of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Why it matters: NAV changes will affect the share exchange ratio in the merger. It impacts stockholder ownership in the combined entity.
Watch forNAV of REFI rises a lot before the merger closes.
Also watch forNAV of REFI decreases or remains stagnant before merger closing.
Why it matters: More originations would show strong demand for financing. This indicates growth in the cannabis sector.
Supportive ifGross originations for Q3 2026 are over $60 million.
Worry ifGross originations fall below $50 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Changes in rules could help borrowers. This may improve REFI's portfolio performance.
Supportive ifFederal rescheduling of cannabis can help operators. It improves their balance sheets and cash flow.
Worry ifIf no big rule changes happen, the market will stay the same.
Why it matters: The merger could impact the company's growth and financial stability. Progress is key.
Supportive ifThere is news of good developments or the merger agreement is complete.
Worry ifMerger talks stall or fail, leading to negative market reactions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,401 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The merger could create a larger, more competitive entity in the cannabis lending space. It is a key growth strategy for REFI.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q4 2026. All necessary approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or faces significant delays beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this payout ratio shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays dividends that match the 90% to 100% payout ratio of earnings.
Worry ifDividends are below the 90% payout ratio. This shows possible financial problems.