Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.94-1.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers
REFI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The text of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of th…
Why it matters: The merger needs both stockholder approval and other clearances. The exchange ratio will use NAV figures set near closing.
Watch forBoth companies approve the merger. Required clearances arrive, and the deal closes in Q4 2026.
Also watch forEither company rejects the deal, a required clearance fails, or the merger does not close in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Management may need a special dividend to meet 2026 tax rules. The merger terms may limit dividends before closing.
Watch forREFI declares a Q4 special dividend and reports that it meets the 2026 tax distribution need.
Also watch forREFI reports no special dividend is needed, or the merger terms block the planned payment.
Why it matters: The $62.5 million notes are secured by second liens, behind about $39 million of first-lien debt. Missed payments could weaken this large loan position.
Worry ifKoach makes every scheduled cash interest payment. No missed payment or loan default is reported.
Less concerning ifREFI reports a missed cash interest payment, loan default, or loss tied to the Koach notes.
Why it matters: Management said repayment timing hurt Q2 earnings, despite $59.2 million in gross originations. Q3 loan balances will show if new loans replace repaid loans.
Watch forQ3 ending loan principal rises above $453.1 million, the June 30 level.
Also watch forQ3 ending loan principal falls below $453.1 million as repayments exceed new lending.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $287 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,031 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.