Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.65+0.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
29.82 → 30.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RGA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted operating income per diluted share increases | Adjusted income per share rose from $5.66 to $6.97 in one year. | Intact | EPS falls below $5.66 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted operating income of $8.89 per diluted share, compared with $4.72 per diluted share in the prior-year quarter.” “In the second quarter, consolidated net premiums totaled $4.5 billion, an increase of 7.7% compared with the prior-year quarter, with an immaterial impact from net foreign currency.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RGA is a financial-sector earnings and capital-return story, not a clear-cut durable compounder given fragile earnings quality and volatile management signals. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, but the evidence snapshot carries medium confidence.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear restrained relative to the model. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and execution risk.
Near term, recent results are strong: net income available to shareholders and adjusted operating income per share both increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management is on track with sustainable earnings growth and dividend priorities, while share repurchases remain measured; a guidance cut is a meaningful risk, and recent earnings surprises have been trending down.
The multi-year thesis depends on RGA sustaining earnings growth while keeping capital allocation disciplined. Near term, a guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, RGA’s long-term thesis remains intact, but fragile earnings quality and the risk of weaker guidance temper the strong recent results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Quarterly dividend per share remains at or above $0.93 | The company returns cash with dividends at $0.93 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.89 per share in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.93 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.93 per share dividend quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.93 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.98, representing a 5.4% increase, to be paid in the third quarter.” “Dividend Declaration Effective May 5, 2026, the board of directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.93, payable June 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 19, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net income available to RGA shareholders grows sustainably | RGA grows earnings steadily with net income rising to $1.18 billion in 2025. | Intact | Net income falls below $286 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $462M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $330 million net income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026462,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted operating income of $8.89 per diluted share, compared with $4.72 per diluted share in the prior-year quarter.” “In the second quarter, consolidated net premiums totaled $4.5 billion, an increase of 7.7% compared with the prior-year quarter, with an immaterial impact from net foreign currency.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Share repurchase program continues with meaningful buybacks | A supporting condition in Reinsurance Group of America's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase at least $125 million in shares annually. | Intact | Repurchases fall below $125 million annually after 2025 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Returned $111 million to shareholders in the quarter, including $50 million of shares repurchased and $61 million in dividends paid.” “Repurchase Authorization On January 29, 2026, the board of directors authorized a share repurchase program for up to $500 million of RGA’s outstanding common stock.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.25 → $30.07 · observed estimates
$28.50B → $28.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $29.25 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $29.30 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $29.30 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $29.30 | $28,495,410,040 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $29.57 | $28,461,681,370 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $29.27 | $28,241,425,793 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $29.58 | $28,222,320,210 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $29.58 | $28,222,320,210 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $29.58 | $28,222,320,210 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $29.58 | $28,222,320,210 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $29.58 | $28,222,320,210 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $29.62 | $28,121,395,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $29.62 | $28,121,395,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $29.62 | $28,121,395,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $29.62 | $28,121,395,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $29.72 | $28,142,020,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $29.72 | $28,142,020,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $29.72 | $28,142,020,750 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $29.72 | $28,071,427,375 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $29.74 | $28,067,560,413 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $29.82 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $29.81 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $29.83 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $29.83 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $29.83 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $29.83 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $29.83 | $28,064,823,188 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $29.94 | $28,068,255,380 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $29.94 | $28,068,255,380 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $29.94 | $28,068,255,380 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $30.05 | $28,051,289,735 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $30.07 | $28,050,450,292 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.