BRC, Inc. (RILY)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.03-0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RILY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 28.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 106.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name recently missed its own guidance and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RILY — officer change
Dated 2026-08-28
Co-Chief Executive Officer — Bryant R. Riley: The filing discloses an amendment to an existing employment agreement regarding compensation and equity eligibility, not a change in personnel or departure.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth shows the company is executing on its growth strategy. A drop below 5% could signal trouble.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Strong trading gains help overall profits and prove the firm's trading plan works.
Supportive ifQ3 trading gains exceeding $134 million would confirm strong trading performance.
Worry ifIf trading gains are below $134 million, it suggests trading is less effective.
Why it matters: If EPS stays above $6.57, it shows strong financial health. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifEPS expected to be above $6.57 in the next quarters.
Worry ifEPS falls below $6.57 in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost control. This may increase overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income increases further from $152.928M in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifIf operating income drops or stays below $152.928M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$271 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $831 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,060 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in SpaceX's share price can greatly impact BRC's net carried interest.
Watch forSpaceX share price increases by $5 leading to a $2.3 million increase in net carried interest.
Also watch forSpaceX share price decreases by $5 leading to a $2.3 million decrease in net carried interest.
Why it matters: The merger could improve how the company operates. It may help future revenue.
Supportive ifThe merger is complete or there is major progress towards it.
Worry ifDelay or cancellation of the merger plans.
Why it matters: Ongoing debt reduction strengthens the balance sheet and supports future growth.
Supportive ifIf net debt reduction is over $285 million, it shows good capital management.
Worry ifIf net debt reduction stops or increases, it raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: More net debt raises worries about financial health and how much the company owes.
Worry ifNet debt increasing from $285.2 million at Q2 would indicate a reversal in debt reduction efforts.
Less concerning ifNet debt is going down, showing good management of the balance sheet.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue keeps growing. It will also show if income improves.
Supportive ifIn Q2, net income for common shareholders is over $211.3 million.
Worry ifIn Q2, net income for common shareholders is under $150 million.
Why it matters: The value of BRC's carried interest in SpaceX depends on its share price. Changes can impact net proceeds.
Watch forIf SpaceX share price goes above $165.95, BRC's net interest estimate increases.
Also watch forIf SpaceX share price drops below $155.95, BRC's net interest estimate decreases.
Why it matters: BRC's revenue growth is crucial for maintaining investor confidence. A drop could signal weakening performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show weak demand or problems in operations. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: A further reduction in net debt shows strong financial health and management effectiveness. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifNet debt falls below $250 million.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $250 million.
Why it matters: More assets can lead to higher revenue and profit in Wealth Management.
Supportive ifWealth Management has over $12.5 billion in assets.
Worry ifWealth Management has under $12.5 billion in assets.