Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rithm Capital (RITM)
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.45-0.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.35 → 2.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RITM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt levels to avoid financial strain | A supporting condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is No significant increase in debt servicing costs or covenant breaches. | Improving | debt servicing costs rise materially or covenant breach occurs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RITM is a financial business with asset management, mortgage origination, and servicing operations, so its long-term thesis depends on both platform growth and financial-sector conditions. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results include earnings beats, but execution quality is fragile and progress on scaling was limited in the latest quarter.
The valuation evidence still describes RITM as cheap versus peers, though its valuation rose recently and its premium versus peers also increased. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market setup does not fully reflect an optimistic operating outlook; the evidence labels the current pricing as justified rather than highly fragile.
Near term, the company has kept its common dividend steady, while earnings available for distribution per share eased from Q2 to Q3. Asset management AUM was roughly unchanged quarter over quarter, and Newrez production fell, although servicing scale and Genesis origination activity continued. Execution remains mixed, with a low near-term miss-risk reading but a history of a deep miss in a high-miss-rate industry.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether RITM can grow asset management and sustain its mortgage platforms while maintaining the dividend. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on the sector backdrop; continued strong results and guidance from major financial firms would support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, RITM presents a mixed financial-sector thesis: its peer valuation remains cheap, but platform growth and execution need clearer progress. The main swing factors are guidance, interest-rate conditions, and delivery on asset management and mortgage operations. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Rithm Capital keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.25 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.25 in FY26 |
Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.25 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income above $154 million quarterly | A supporting condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is >= $154 million per quarter. | Broken | operating income falls below $154 million in any quarter | Operating income: $960.766M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $154 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026960,766,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to at least $5.94 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.94 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $5.94 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.756B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.94 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20261,756,422,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.35 → $2.37 · observed estimates
$6.28B → $6.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.35 | $6,284,283,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.35 | $6,284,283,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.35 | $6,284,283,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.35 | $6,284,283,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.35 | $6,284,283,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.35 | $6,293,133,170 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.35 | $6,303,789,143 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.36 | $6,287,487,330 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.36 | $6,287,487,330 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.36 | $6,287,487,330 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.36 | $6,287,487,330 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.36 | $6,287,487,330 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.35 | $6,027,060,570 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.36 | $6,302,060,571 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.35 | $6,360,697,429 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.35 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.34 | $6,434,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.34 | $6,379,419,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.34 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.34 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.34 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.33 | $6,373,919,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.33 | $6,353,235,833 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.33 | $6,353,235,833 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.35 | $6,372,135,833 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.37 | $6,375,469,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.37 | $6,375,469,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.37 | $6,375,469,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.37 | $6,375,469,167 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.37 | $6,370,653,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.37 | $6,424,810,143 | 7 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.