Rithm Capital (RITM)
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.08+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RITM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
RITM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation
Dated 2026-05-14
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will indicate if Rithm can sustain its growth strategy.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below 10% year over year, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Growth in origination volume matters. It impacts Rithm's revenue and performance.
Supportive ifOrigination volume is more than $15.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOrigination volume drops below $12 billion in Q2 2026. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows Rithm's asset management business is doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 asset management revenue grew over 30% from Q2's $141 million.
Worry ifQ3 asset management revenue growth is below 30% QoQ.
Why it matters: Newrez's ROE is a sign of its profitability. A drop could indicate weaker performance.
Worry ifNewrez's operating ROE falls below 22%.
Less concerning ifNewrez's operating ROE remains at or above 22%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,733 loss on $10,000 · 27.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in mortgage origination volume indicates strong demand in the housing market. It reflects the health of the business.
Supportive ifMortgage origination volume grows more than 3% from last quarter.
Worry ifMortgage origination volume falls or grows less than 3% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifRithm announces the dividend remains at $0.25 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifRithm cuts the dividend below $0.25 per share, signaling financial strain.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Rithm is working more efficiently. Poor results may show problems.
Supportive ifOperating income goes above $160 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income stays below $150 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income backs the management's plan. It also boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is more than the last quarter's rise of 65%.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below the previous quarter's increase of 65%.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can boost stock price and show confidence in the company's value. Failure to lift price may signal weakness.
Supportive ifStock price goes up a lot after the buyback program is announced.
Worry ifStock price remains flat or declines despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: This shows Rithm's mortgage origination and servicing platform is still strong.
Supportive ifNewrez made over $300 million before tax in Q3.
Worry ifNewrez made less than $300 million before tax in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth would show strong demand for Rithm's asset management services. It confirms the company's ongoing momentum in a challenging market.
Supportive ifAUM increases to over $62 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifAUM does not reach $61 billion. This shows problems in getting new investments.
Why it matters: This shows strong earnings growth. It helps management focus on giving more to shareholders.
Supportive ifEarnings for distribution are over $350 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings for distribution drop below $338.9 million. This suggests weaker performance.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe common dividend remains at $0.25 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut below $0.25 per share, indicating financial strain.