Rithm Capital (RITM)
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.50+3.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RITM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RITM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation
Dated 2026-05-14
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Why it matters: Rithm priced $500 million of notes at 8.500% due 2031. A higher rate on new debt would raise funding costs.
Worry ifA new unsecured note issue carries an interest rate above 8.500%.
Less concerning ifRithm reports no new unsecured notes above 8.500%, or reports a lower rate on a new issue.
Why it matters: AUM stayed near $61 billion in Q3 despite $2.9 billion in year-to-date inflows. More growth would show the business is scaling.
Supportive ifQ4 AUM rises above $61 billion, with positive gross fund inflows.
Worry ifQ4 AUM stays at or below $61 billion, or gross inflows turn negative.
Why it matters: Q3 distribution earnings were $0.55 per share, versus a $0.25 dividend. A sharp drop would narrow that gap.
Worry ifQuarterly earnings fall to $0.25 per share or less.
Less concerning ifQuarterly earnings stay above $0.25 per share. The dividend stays at $0.25.
Why it matters: Newrez production fell 19% from Q2 and 21% from a year earlier. A rebound would ease pressure on the mortgage platform.
Supportive ifNewrez funds more than $12.9 billion in production in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifNewrez funded production stays at or below $12.9 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,897 loss on $10,000 · 29.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.