Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$16.69 → $16.75 · observed estimates
Raymond James Financial (RJF)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$168.69+4.34%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.74 → 16.75 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RJF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.54 per share and continue share buybacks | A supporting condition in Raymond James Financial's published investment case. The stated target is dividend >= $0.54 per share quarterly. | Intact | dividend cut below $0.54 per share or buybacks halted | Dividend per share: $0.54 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: dividend >= $0.54 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20260.54 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$16.69 → $16.75 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a diversified financial-services business with a multi-year thesis built on growing client assets, fee-based accounts, and investment banking. The thesis state is watch: recent signals have improved, while financial performance still trails its industry cohort.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with the expectations gap slightly negative, meaning expectations may be a little ahead of the evidence. The priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, rather than a setup driven by several forms of excess.
In the near term, recent earnings beats and stronger company momentum support the picture, while the supplied evidence still rates recent performance and earnings quality as neutral. Over the multi-year view, PCG fee-based assets and domestic net new assets, capital returned, and higher investment banking revenue show delivery on stated priorities; a guidance cut remains a risk.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts from the current level, which could weigh on RJF and the Financials sector. The favorable case depends in part on sector momentum continuing if bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR keep beating earnings and raising guidance.
For the next 1 to 3 years, RJF’s long-term thesis rests on continued client-asset growth and execution across its businesses, with recent improvement offset by below-cohort performance and rate-related risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS >= $2.72 next quarter | A primary condition in Raymond James Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.72 USD_PER_SHARE. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $2.72 | Diluted EPS: $3.40 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=2.72 USD_PER_SHARE. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Oct 28, 20263.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Investment banking revenues >=$272 million | Investment banking revenues rose 31% to $272 million. | Intact | investment banking revenue falls below $208 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Private Client Group fee-based assets reach >=$1.04 trillion | Raymond James Financial grows assets in its Private Client Group by 20%. | Intact | PCG fee-based assets fall below $872.8 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$19.03B → $19.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $16.69 | $19,034,320,975 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.69 | $19,034,320,975 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.70 | $19,077,132,265 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.81 | $19,103,796,836 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.74 | $19,103,796,836 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.74 | $19,103,796,836 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.74 | $19,102,697,232 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.77 | $19,025,815,837 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.91 | $19,025,815,837 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.85 | $19,029,379,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.85 | $19,029,379,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.85 | $19,029,379,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.71 | $19,027,879,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.81 | $19,067,137,759 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.74 | $19,078,219,897 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.70 | $19,066,715,385 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.70 | $19,066,715,385 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.70 | $19,066,715,385 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.75 | $19,093,684,995 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.75 | $19,093,684,995 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.