Raymond James Financial (RJF)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$178.29-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RJF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers
RJF — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-01
Regulation FD Disclosure On August 26, 2026, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that the Board of Directors had declared on August 26, 2026 a quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share for each outstanding share of common stock of the Company. The dividend is payable on October 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on October 1, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated he…
Why it matters: High investment banking revenues show a strong deal-making environment. This means firm growth.
Supportive ifInvestment banking revenues in Q4 are over $285 million.
Worry ifInvestment banking revenues fall below $200 million in Q4.
Why it matters: Growth in Private Client Group assets is very important for management. It also affects total revenue.
Supportive ifPrivate Client Group assets grow by more than 20% year over year.
Worry ifGrowth in Private Client Group assets drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: This offering will raise funds for the company. It may impact liquidity.
Supportive ifThe offering closed successfully. The funds were used as planned.
Worry ifFailure to close the offering or significant changes in the terms.
Why it matters: A drop in net revenues may show weaker demand or market issues. This affects profit.
Worry ifQuarterly net revenues fall below $3.5 billion in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifQuarterly net revenues stay above $3.5 billion in the next earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,964 loss on $10,000 · 19.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company's financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled to shareholders of record on July 1, 2026.
Worry ifIf the company suddenly stops or cuts the dividend, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net new assets shows demand for services and client trust.
Supportive ifDomestic Private Client Group net new assets grow above $21.7 billion in Q4.
Worry ifNet new assets fall below $15 billion in Q4.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good money management. It helps shareholders too.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of $0.54 or higher on October 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe Board declares a dividend lower than $0.54 on October 1, 2026.