ROCKET COMPANIES INC (RKT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.06-1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RKT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 55.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
RKT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Rocket Companies, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Why it matters: Completing this will improve cash flow. It will help with debt repayment.
Supportive ifThe offering closes as planned on June 16, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control. This is important for future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $400 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was under $400 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may impact Rocket's performance. This is a key trend to monitor.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%.
Why it matters: How Rocket uses its debt affects its money plans and overall health.
Watch forThe details about the $900M debt offering show good news about how the money will be used.
Also watch forNegative commentary on the debt issuance or lack of clarity on the use of proceeds.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $605 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,731 loss on $10,000 · 47.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful integration can save costs and help profits. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they met integration goals early. This shows they are on track.
Worry ifThere are delays or issues with integration. Management lowers their synergy goals.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is crucial for capital allocation. It could affect future growth opportunities and financial health.
Watch forPositive announcements on how the debt will be used to drive growth.
Also watch forBad news about the debt affects financial stability.
Why it matters: A decline may mean challenges in keeping profits. Expenses are rising.
Worry ifIn Q3, GAAP net income was over $229 million. This shows strong profitability.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income reported below $229 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This volume shows Rocket's ability to gain market share. The market is competitive.
Supportive ifNet rate lock volume reported above $36.9 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNet rate lock volume reported below $36.9 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: This range indicates if Rocket is maintaining its revenue growth momentum. Results outside this range could signal issues.
Watch forIn Q3, adjusted revenue was over $2.7 billion. This shows strong growth.
Also watch forIn Q3, adjusted revenue was below $2.5 billion. This may mean revenue decline.
Why it matters: Lower guidance would signal a slowdown in revenue growth and mortgage volume.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is below $2.5 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance is above $2.7 billion.
Why it matters: Rocket is gaining market share. This shows its strength in a tough market.
Supportive ifPurchase market share is above 6.2%. Refinance market share is above 14.3%.
Worry ifMarket share declines from current levels.
Why it matters: Paying back senior notes will improve financial stability. It will also help with liquidity.
Supportive ifCompletion of repayment for the 2026 Rocket Mortgage Notes by June 19, 2026.
Worry ifNot paying back on time.
Why it matters: A drop in net income raises worries about profits and efficiency.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains above $200 million.