Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.52 → $1.52 · observed estimates
RMR Group, Inc. (The) (RMR)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.70+0.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share near $0.28 in 2025-Q2 | Earnings remain stable near $0.28 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.28 in 2025-Q2 | Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.28 per share. The stored target says 2025-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.52 → $1.52 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a real-estate-related asset management business with a growth initiative in private capital, but its recent results make the thesis mixed rather than a clear durable compounder. The current thesis state is watch, with medium confidence and moderate risk.
The valuation evidence describes RMR as cheap, while its valuation model also shows a premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.4. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Over the multi-year view, private capital AUM has been roughly steady across the reported periods, and management has continued fundraising and team-building efforts. Near term, profitability has been variable and recently lower, with two reported earnings misses; AI-related margin plans remain watch items because specific results were not provided.
A favorable scenario would be Fed rate cuts supporting rate-sensitive real estate names. The thesis would weaken if RMR cuts guidance or if sector leaders show missed results or softer guidance, reducing the sector tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the case depends on turning private-capital efforts into durable growth while stabilizing earnings; recent misses make the next updates important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| RMR manages cash well with $48.8M operating cash flow in 2026-Q2. |
| Intact |
| Operating cash flow falls below $48.8M in 2026-Q2 |
Cash from operations: $28.704M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $48.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202628,704,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stays near $145.6M in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in RMR Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $145.6M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $145.6M in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $153.514M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $145.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026153,514,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.52 | $644,609,800 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.