RMR Group, Inc. (The) (RMR)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.55+0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RMR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, The RMR Group Inc., or the Company, issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing the Company’s financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the Company’s summary press release and detailed earnings presentation are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto, respectively.
Why it matters: Management focuses on AI investments to boost margins. Proof of this will show success.
Watch forOperating margins rise to over 42% next quarter. This shows AI is having a good effect.
Also watch forOperating margins stay below 40%. This suggests AI investments are not working.
Why it matters: Re-accelerating revenue growth would signal a turnaround in RMR's business. It’s crucial for future earnings.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 4% year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Worry ifRevenue growth is under 4%. This shows ongoing challenges in the sector.
Why it matters: Stable net income shows better financial health. It also shows good management.
Watch forNet income shows stability, landing between $1.0M and $12.2M in Q2.
Also watch forNet income fluctuates outside the $1.0M to $12.2M range in Q2.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings results will show if the recent earnings miss is a trend or an anomaly. Investors look for consistent performance.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show net income over $1.5M. This means recovery is happening.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows net income below $1.0M, confirming ongoing issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $240 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,591 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good cash flow management is important for RMR's finances and growth.
Watch forCash flow from operations shows a consistent upward trend above $48.8M.
Also watch forCash flow from operations drops below $10.7M without a clear recovery trend.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for RMR's financial health. Variability could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifCash from operations goes over $40M next quarter. This shows stability.
Less concerning ifCash from operations drops below $10M again. This shows ongoing cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Successful fundraising shows RMR can grow its private capital assets. This affects future revenue.
Supportive ifThey raised over $250M for the Enhanced Growth Venture project.
Worry ifNo updates on fundraising progress or failure to raise the targeted $250M.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if RMR can stabilize net income. Investors want to see if management can keep profits.
Worry ifQ3 net income is above $1 million. This shows stabilization.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income falls below $1 million, showing continued decline.
Why it matters: Growth in private capital AUM is crucial for RMR's future revenue. Tracking this will show if management is meeting growth targets.
Supportive ifPrivate capital AUM rises to over $12 billion. This shows successful fundraising.
Worry ifPrivate capital AUM falls or stays below $11.7 billion. This shows fundraising struggles.