ROST
Ross StoresNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ROST has a signal label of "mild_favorable" with a composite score of 12.0. This change from a previous label of "mixed" is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0 and a macro score of 17.9. The top drivers influencing this score include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.79 → $1.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.1% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-31 | $1.60 – $1.67 | $1.82 | beat |
| 2024-10-31 | $1.35 – $1.41 | $1.48 | beat |
| 2025-10-31 | $1.31 – $1.37 | $1.58 | beat |
| 2026-01-31 | $1.77 – $1.85 | $2.00 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 23%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of 2026-05-08, the signal label for ROST changed from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." This indicates a transition to a more favorable outlook. Additionally, the forward view includes an unfavorable scenario of a guidance cut, which could result in a composite delta estimate of -8.0, and a favorable scenario if the consumer discretionary sector trend improves, with a potential composite delta estimate of 5.0.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 11.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ROST Ross Stores | +12 | expensive | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-032mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 14 - 2025-11-205mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 20, 2025, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended November 1, 2025. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed i…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 1 - 2025-11-245mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) As previously disclosed, and as provided in the Tenth Amendment to his executive employment agreement, Michael Balmuth will continue to serve as the Company’s Executive Chairman through January 31, 2026, at which time he will cease to serve in that role. He will remain an employee of the Company, with the title of Senior Advisor, from February…
executive changeneutralscore 1 - 2025-09-028mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Officer. As previously announced, Adam Orvos, the current Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) of Ross Stores, Inc. (the “Company”), is scheduled to retire from his role as CFO and from his employment with the Company, effective September 30, 2025. Consistent with the announced CFO succession plan, the Company’s Board of Directors has…
executive changeneutralscore 0 - 2025-06-3010mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Ross Stores, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a new, senior unsecured revolving Credit Agreement (the “2025 Credit Facility”) on June 27, 2025 (the “Effective Date”) with the lenders named therein, providing the Company with up to $1.3 billion in borrowing availability, on terms and conditions as described below. Bank of America, N.A., is administrative agent, a swing line lender and a letter of credit issuer, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Associa…
capital allocationneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.