Ross Stores (ROST)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$230.69-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ROST — Chair transition
Dated 2025-11-24
Executive Chairman — Michael Balmuth: Michael Balmuth will transition from Executive Chairman to Senior Advisor and retire as a Board member, with Gunnar Bjorklund succeeding him as Chairman.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision could affect consumer confidence and spending. This is crucial for retail sales performance.
Watch forConsumer spending is rising after the FOMC decision on July 29, 2026.
Also watch forConsumer spending fell after the FOMC decision on July 29, 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.445 or increases in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases from $0.445.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can hurt spending. This may affect Ross's sales. We need to watch this for risks.
Worry ifUnemployment claims are expected to be above 300,000 in the next report.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims are expected to be below 300,000 in the next report.
Why it matters: Growth in comparable store sales shows customer demand strength. This can lead to higher revenue.
Supportive ifComparable store sales grow year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline year over year or grow less than 2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,303 loss on $10,000 · 13.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new Chair may make changes that affect company direction and shareholder value.
Watch forThey announced plans to improve their market position. This will help shareholders.
Also watch forNo announcement of new initiatives or strategies from the new Board Chair.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can keep its earnings growth from past quarters.
Supportive ifEarnings per share for Q3 lands between $1.75 and $1.83.
Worry ifEarnings per share for Q3 falls below $1.75.
Why it matters: Changes in the consumer price index can affect consumer spending. This data can influence how shoppers behave and impact sales.
Watch forCPI data shows inflation is down. This suggests stronger consumer spending.
Also watch forCPI data shows inflation is up. This suggests weaker consumer spending.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights on sales and earnings performance. It is a key indicator of the company's health.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong sales growth and EPS above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak sales growth or EPS below guidance.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It helps investors feel secure.
Supportive ifManagement says the dividend per share will stay the same or go up.
Worry ifManagement announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if the company can maintain strong customer traffic and sales momentum.
Supportive ifComparable store sales growth falls within the 6% to 7% range for Q3.
Worry ifComparable store sales growth falls below 6% for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means strong financial results. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raised EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 to over $8.77.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains at or below $8.61.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows the company is growing and gaining market share.
Supportive ifThe company opens 115 new stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 100 locations by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show weaker profits. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share prints above $1.75.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share falls below $1.75.