Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Ross Stores (ROST)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$235.23-4.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.01 → 9.02 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ROST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Comparable store sales increase of 7% to 8% | Comparable store sales are expected to increase 7% to 8%, showing strong sales growth. | Intact | comparable store sales growth falls below 5% next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Comparable store sales are now expected to increase 6% to 7% in the third quarter and 4% to 5% in the fourth quarter.” “Mr. Conroy continued, “Based on our first quarter results and our second quarter guidance, we are increasing our 2026 fiscal year same store sales growth to 6% to 7% on top of a 5% gain in 2025.” Revenue was $6.265 billion in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ROST is a steady retailer with a multi-year growth thesis supported by comparable-store sales gains and store expansion. The thesis is intact, but the recent 15-point decline in company momentum is a sign that the pace has eased.
The evidence describes ROST as stretched and expensive versus peers, with a durable premium. The expectations gap is 0.13, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on exactly what the market assumes is limited.
Near term, management has raised fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, and reported diluted earnings per share and comparable-store sales have grown. Store openings are progressing, though delivery is mixed; peer misses and a prior deep miss in ROST’s recent history remain risks despite a low near-term miss estimate.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on ROST sustaining sales and earnings execution without reversing its recent guidance increase. Consumer Discretionary peers’ results matter too: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, ROST’s operating thesis remains intact, but its expensive valuation leaves less room for weaker execution. The key tests are continued delivery on guidance and sales, alongside the direction of sector peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain or increase dividend per share to about $0.45 | The company maintains dividends, increasing per share payouts to about $0.45. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.40 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.45 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 1, 20260.445 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at $7.50 or higher | Ross Stores grows earnings steadily with EPS guidance raised to $7.50-$7.74 for fiscal 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance mid falls below $6.40 for fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Mr. Conroy continued, “Based on our strong first half results and our updated second half guidance, we are increasing our 2026 fiscal year earnings per share projections to be in the range of $8.61 to $8.77, which again includes an approximate $0.60 earnings per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds recognized in the second quarter.” “As a result, fiscal 2026 earnings per share are now projected to be in the range of $7.50 to $7.74, or growth of 13% to 17% when compared to $6.61 for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Price-to-earnings ratio remains justified below 30 | A supporting condition in Ross Stores's published investment case. The stated target is <= 30 PE TTM. | Broken | PE TTM rises above 35 without earnings growth acceleration | P/E (TTM): 32.08x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202632.0809 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.61 → $9.02 · observed estimates
$26.75B → $27.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.61 | $26,745,128,592 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.61 | $26,745,128,592 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.61 | $26,745,128,592 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.61 | $26,745,128,592 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.62 | $26,755,375,479 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.59 | $26,769,940,790 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.59 | $26,769,940,790 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.63 | $26,755,375,479 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.70 | $26,866,801,605 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.94 | $27,331,856,894 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.02 | $27,434,768,315 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.02 | $27,434,780,471 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.02 | $27,434,780,471 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.02 | $27,434,780,471 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.04 | $27,433,361,675 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.04 | $27,469,497,137 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.04 | $27,469,497,137 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.04 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.01 | $27,469,495,121 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.01 | $27,469,503,193 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.98 | $27,439,624,219 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.98 | $27,439,624,219 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.98 | $27,439,624,219 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.98 | $27,468,032,196 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.98 | $27,468,032,196 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.98 | $27,468,032,196 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.98 | $27,468,032,196 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.98 | $27,468,032,196 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.01 | $27,528,812,459 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.02 | $27,534,081,301 | 10 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.