Ross Stores (ROST)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$230.69-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ross Stores grows earnings steadily with EPS guidance raised to $7.50-$7.74 for fiscal 2026. Comparable store sales are expected to increase 7% to 8%, showing strong sales growth. The company maintains dividends, increasing per share payouts to about $0.45. Recent earnings beats and positive consumer trends support durable growth.
Consumer slowdown fears and legal challenges could hurt sales and brand reputation. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio near 30, well above peers at 13.6, risking valuation pressure. Guidance is soft, and momentum has weakened, which may limit upside.
The market prices Ross about 28% above our fair value near $168, reflecting about 15% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 36% below the Street median, indicating the market may be too optimistic on growth and valuation.
Breaks if: comparable store sales growth falls below 5% next quarter
Drive comparable store sales growth through customer traffic, marketing initiatives, and merchandise offerings.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, with a focus on consistent earnings growth and store expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to increasing earnings per share (EPS).
The market appears to have priced in a premium valuation compared to peers, reflecting expectations for continued growth. However, there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that while the stock is seen as expensive, some growth is still anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management has consistently raised EPS guidance and reported strong comparable store sales growth. The risk of missing earnings is low, but past performance indicates that any significant miss could impact credibility.
The long-term thesis hinges on the ability of ROST to maintain its growth trajectory, especially in light of sector performance from peers like TJX and LULU. Additionally, the impact of inflation trends and potential changes in guidance will be crucial for future performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company raised its full-year EPS guidance for fiscal 2026. It also reported strong comparable store sales growth, with a 10% increase in Q2. The market's aggregate expectation is now strongly positive, with a majority of analysts rating the stock as a Strong Buy.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Comparable store sales grew from 2% in 2025-Q2 to 10% in 2026-Q3, with management forecasting 6%-7% growth in Q3 and 4%-5% in Q4 2026. The trajectory shows strong delivery and sustained growth in customer traffic and sales.
“Comparable store sales up a very strong 10% for the quarter.”
“Comparable store sales forecasted to increase 6% to 7% for the 13 weeks ending August 1, 2026.”
“Comparable store sales rose a very robust 17% for the quarter.”
“Comparable store sales increased a robust 9% for the quarter.”
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.40 next quarter
Breaks if: EPS guidance mid falls below $6.40 for fiscal 2026
Raise earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026 based on strong first half results and updated second half outlook.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance from $7.02-$7.36 in 2026-Q1 to $8.61-$8.77 in 2026-Q3. Reported diluted EPS grew from $1.56 in 2025-Q2 to $2.66 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions and EPS growth.
“Increasing our 2026 fiscal year earnings per share projections to be in the range of $8.61 to $8.77.”
“Fiscal 2026 earnings per share are now projected to be in the range of $7.50 to $7.74.”
“Fiscal 2026 earnings per share are projected to be in the range of $7.02 to $7.36.”
“Fiscal 2026 earnings per share are projected to be in the range of $6.38 to $6.46.”
Breaks if: PE TTM rises above 35 without earnings growth acceleration
Overall, ROST's position is supported by strong management execution and recent financial results, but it faces moderate risks from external factors. Not investment advice.