Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Repay Holdings Corp. (RPAY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.56-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.99 → 1.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RPAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 42% in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA margins aim near 42%. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an acquisition-supported growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder: RPAY is currently loss-making, with high risk and volatile management evidence. The long-term thesis is on watch because recent performance remains below its industry group, despite revenue growth and an August earnings beat.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low; the model also shows a 12% premium versus peers, so the evidence on relative value is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the snapshot does not spell out specific market expectations.
Near term, management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook, and revenue rose from $77.3 million in the first quarter to $100.7 million in the second, with KUBRA contributing to growth. The adjusted EBITDA outlook has increased, but the approximately 42% margin goal is mixed, and 2026 free-cash-flow conversion guidance has been reduced from earlier guidance. Near-term risk is described as quiet, though peers have missed recently and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on delivering 10% to 12% organic growth alongside the 2026 revenue outlook, and on progress toward the 2028 free-cash-flow accretion goal. The swing factors include whether margin and cash-flow conversion improve, whether guidance stays intact, and whether rate cuts or steadier results from large technology companies ease sector pressure.
The 1-to-3-year view is a high-risk execution story with encouraging revenue growth, but uneven profitability and cash-flow evidence. Its thesis depends on sustained delivery against management’s goals and steadier performance relative to peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow should grow by 25% by 2028. |
| Improving |
| free cash flow growth less than 15% by FY28 |
Free cash flow: $38.056M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 25% accretion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202638,056,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
2026 revenue reaches $490M-$500M | A primary condition in Repay Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $490 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $490 million in FY26 | Revenue: $100.705M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $490 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026100,705,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.04 → $1.06 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $627,316,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.04 | $627,316,252 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.99 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.06 | $626,922,527 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.