Repay Holdings Corp. (RPAY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.56-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RPAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 59.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers
RPAY — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, Hawk Parent Holdings LLC (the “Borrower”), a subsidiary of Repay Holdings Corporation (the “Company”), entered into the First Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement, dated as of June 1, 2026 (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Borrower, the Company, the guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto and Truist Bank, as administrative agent. The Amendment was entered into in connection with the…
Why it matters: REPAY cut its 2026 free cash flow conversion outlook from 45% to 30%. Q3 can show whether cash flow is on track.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow conversion is below 25%, or the company cuts its 30% full-year outlook.
Less concerning ifThe company keeps its 30% full-year outlook and Q3 conversion is 30% or higher.
Why it matters: This tests whether KUBRA and core growth deliver the full-year sales goal.
Supportive ifFY2026 revenue is at least $490M, and organic revenue growth is 10% or higher.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue is below $490M, or organic revenue growth is below 10%.
Why it matters: REPAY said growth could speed up in the second half. A 10% result would support that claim.
Supportive ifReported organic revenue growth reaches 10% or more in a quarter in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifReported organic revenue growth stays below 10% in each quarter in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Management said it would share its strategy, goals, and financial outlook. Clear targets can test the KUBRA plan.
Watch forThe Investor Day gives named goals for KUBRA savings and growth, with dates or dollar amounts.
Also watch forThe Investor Day is delayed, or gives no clear KUBRA goals with dates or dollar amounts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,326 loss on $10,000 · 43.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: REPAY closed the KUBRA deal at about 4x net leverage. Lower debt would ease this burden.
Supportive ifA company report shows net leverage below 3.0x by 18 months after the June 1, 2026 close.
Worry ifNet leverage remains at or above 3.0x after December 1, 2027.
Why it matters: These savings test whether the deal is delivering its stated cost gains.
Supportive ifREPAY reports about $8M in KUBRA cost savings achieved during 2026, at the current run rate.
Worry ifREPAY reports less than $8M of 2026 run-rate savings, or delays the target.